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Foreign-exchange intervention strategies and market expectations: insights from Japan

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  • Gnabo, Jean-Yves
  • Teiletche, Jérôme

Abstract

This study extends the traditional set of central bank's interventions to include official announcements in order to provide empirical evidence on two pivotal questions: (i) are FX authorities able to influence market expectations with different instruments? (ii) how should interventions be designed to have the greatest impact? Using Japanese data over 1992-2004 and an event-study approach, we estimate the effect of different strategies on the USD/JPY exchange-rate risk-neutral density. Overall, transparent policies (public and oral interventions) appear to be the most effective. Moreover, the effect is greater when policies involve a financial cost (risk) suggesting that simple announcements can only be deemed as an imperfect substitute for actual interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Teiletche, Jérôme, 2009. "Foreign-exchange intervention strategies and market expectations: insights from Japan," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 432-446, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfin:v:19:y:2009:i:3:p:432-446
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    Cited by:

    1. Jukka Sihvonen & Sami Vähämaa, 2014. "Forward‐Looking Monetary Policy Rules and Option‐Implied Interest Rate Expectations," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(4), pages 346-373, April.
    2. Santiago García-Verdú & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2014. "Interventions and Expected Exchange Rates in Emerging Market Economies," Quarterly Journal of Finance (QJF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-34.
    3. Kentaro Iwatsubo & Satoshi Kawanishi, 2011. "The Information Improving Channel of Exchange Rate Intervention: How Do Official Announcements Work?," Discussion Papers 1116, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    4. Dewachter, Hans & Erdemlioglu, Deniz & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Lecourt, Christelle, 2014. "The intra-day impact of communication on euro-dollar volatility and jumps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 131-154.
    5. Vithessonthi, Chaiporn & Tongurai, Jittima, 2014. "The spillover effects of unremunerated reserve requirements: Evidence from Thailand," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 338-351.
    6. Nikkinen, Jussi & Vähämaa, Sami, 2009. "Central bank interventions and implied exchange rate correlations," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(5), pages 862-873, December.
    7. Santiago García-Verdú & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "Interventions and expected exchange rates in emerging market economies," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 223-242, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Srđan Marinković, 2014. "Non-Parametric Sign Test And Paired Samples Test Of Effectiveness Of Official Fx Intervention," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(202), pages 107-130, July – Se.
    9. Zhang, Zhichao & Li, He & Zhang, Chuanjie, 2017. "Oral intervention in China: Efficacy of Chinese exchange rate communications," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 24-34.
    10. Yushi Yoshida & Jan C. Rülke, 2009. "On-Going versus Completed Interventions and Yen/Dollar Expectations - Evidence from Disaggregated Survey Data," Discussion Papers 35, Kyushu Sangyo University, Faculty of Economics, revised Dec 2009.

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