IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/nbr/nberwo/0863.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market

Author

Listed:
  • Peter R. Hartley

Abstract

Many models of exchange rate determination imply that movements in money supplies and demands should result in movements in exchange rates. Hence, if rational agents are attempting to forecast exchange rate movements, they should in the first instance forecast movements in the supplies of and demands for money balances. Furthermore, if these underlying variables follow some stable autoregressive processes agents should use those processes to make their forecasts. If we identify the forward rate with the market's expectation for the future spot rate, rationality of expectations will imply testable cross-equation restrictions in a joint model of the autoregressions and exchange rate forecasting equation. This strategy is implemented in the paper using data on the L UK/$US and DM/$US exchange rates from the recent floating rate period.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter R. Hartley, 1982. "Rational Expectations and the Foreign Exchange Market," NBER Working Papers 0863, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0863
    Note: ITI IFM
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w0863.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    2. Hansen, Lars Peter & Sargent, Thomas J., 1980. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 7-46, May.
    3. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Razin, Assaf, 1980. "Stochastic prices and tests of efficiency of foreign exchange markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 165-170.
    4. Hodrick, Robert J., 1979. "On the monetary analysis of exchange rates : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 103-121, January.
    5. Mussa, Michael, 1982. "A Model of Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(1), pages 74-104, February.
    6. Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
    7. Frenkel, Jacob A & Levich, Richard M, 1975. "Covered Interest Arbitrage: Unexploited Profits?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 325-338, April.
    8. Ernst R. Berndt & Bronwyn H. Hall & Robert E. Hall & Jerry A. Hausman, 1974. "Estimation and Inference in Nonlinear Structural Models," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 3, number 4, pages 653-665, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    10. Cumby, Robert E. & Huizinga, John & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1983. "Two-step two-stage least squares estimation in models with rational expectations," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 333-355, April.
    11. Mishkin, Frederie S., 1981. "Monetary policy and long-term interest rates : An efficient markets approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 29-55.
    12. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-1176, December.
    13. Engle, Robert F, 1982. "Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity with Estimates of the Variance of United Kingdom Inflation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 987-1007, July.
    14. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1979. "Policies for employment, prices, and exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 1-7, January.
    15. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Oliinyk Oksana & Ksendzuk Valentyna & Sergiienko Larysa & Lehan Iryna, 2020. "Research Of Functional Changes In Foreign Exchange Rate EUR/UAH Under Conditions Of Economic Transformation In Ukraine," Bulletin of Geography. Socio-economic Series, Sciendo, vol. 48(48), pages 141-154, June.
    2. Sebastian Edwards, 1981. "Floating Excahnge Rates, Exectations and New Information," UCLA Economics Working Papers 227, UCLA Department of Economics.
    3. Edwards, Sebastian, 1983. "Floating exchange rates, expectations and new information," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 321-336.
    4. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of a dynamic model of exchange rate determination: an application of general method of moments techniques," International Finance Discussion Papers 208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Robert E. Cumby & Maurice Obstfeld, 1984. "International Interest Rate and Price Level Linkages under Flexible Exchange Rates: A Review of Recent Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rate Theory and Practice, pages 121-152, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Thomas C. Glaessner, 1982. "Formulation and estimation of a dynamic model of exchange rate determination: an application of general method of moments techniques," International Finance Discussion Papers 208, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Geweke, J. & Joel Horowitz & Pesaran, M.H., 2006. "Econometrics: A Bird’s Eye View," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0655, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    4. Adrian C. Darnell, 1994. "A Dictionary Of Econometrics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 118.
    5. West, Kenneth D., 1987. "A standard monetary model and the variability of the deutschemark-dollar exchange rate," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1-2), pages 57-76, August.
    6. Alberto Giovannini, 1988. "The Macroeconomics of Exchange-rate and Price-level Interactions: Empirical Evidence for West Germany," NBER Working Papers 2544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2007. "Structural Error Correction Models: A System Method for Linear Rational Expectations Models and an Application to an Exchange Rate Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 2057-2075, December.
    8. Jaebeom Kim & Masao Ogaki & Minseok Yang, 2003. "Structural Error Correction Models: Instrumental Variables Methods and an application to an exchange rate model," RCER Working Papers 502, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    9. Winter, Joachim, 1997. "Ökonometrische Analyse diskreter dynamischer Entscheidungsprozesse," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 99-27, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    10. Ledenyov, Dimitri O. & Ledenyov, Viktor O., 2015. "Wave function method to forecast foreign currencies exchange rates at ultra high frequency electronic trading in foreign currencies exchange markets," MPRA Paper 67470, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    12. Giovannini, Alberto & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1989. "Exchange-Rate Dynamics with Sticky Prices: The Deutsche Mark, 1974-1982," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 7(2), pages 169-178, April.
    13. Dominguez, Kathryn M., 1998. "Central bank intervention and exchange rate volatility1," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 161-190, February.
    14. Jorion, Philippe & Giovannini, Alberto, 1993. "Time-series tests of a non-expected-utility model of asset pricing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1083-1100, June.
    15. Bekaert, Geert & Hodrick, Robert J., 1993. "On biases in the measurement of foreign exchange risk premiums," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(2), pages 115-138, April.
    16. Hodrick, Robert J., 1989. "Risk, uncertainty, and exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 433-459, May.
    17. repec:csg:ajrcwp:05 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Cumby, Robert E., 1988. "Is it risk? : Explaining deviations from uncovered interest parity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 279-299, September.
    19. Martin D. D. Evans, 2002. "FX Trading and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(6), pages 2405-2447, December.
    20. Fujihara, Roger A. & Mougoue, Mbodja, 1996. "International linkages between short-term real interest rates," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 451-473.
    21. Frenkel, Jacob A. & Mussa, Michael L., 1985. "Asset markets, exchange rates and the balance of payments," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 14, pages 679-747, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:0863. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.