Common trends and generalized purchasing power parity
The theory of purchasing power parity (PPP) has worked poorly during the post-Bretton Woods period. We generalize the concept of PPP (called generalized-PPP, or G-PPP) and posit an equilibrium relationship among groups of real exchange rates. The basic tenants of G-PPP are that real fundamental macroeconomic shocks tend to be non-stationary so that the real exchange rates themselves will tend to be non-stationary. Although bilateral exchange rates are non-stationary, they will be cointegrated if the vector of stochastically trending variables has reduced rank. G-PPP will hold within the domain of a currency area since the individual nations will experience a set of common real macroeconomic shocks. Using data from the industrialized countries during the post-Bretton Woods period, we show that G-PPP holds for various groupings of nations. We estimate the long-run equilibrium relationships among the real exchange rates and the short-run dynamics concerning the international transmission of real disturbances. An interesting finding is that G-PPP does not hold among the set of major European nations. The direst implication is that such nations do not constitute the domain of a currency area.
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Volume (Year): 43 (1997)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
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- Dickey, David A & Pantula, Sastry G, 1987. "Determining the Ordering of Differencing in Autoregressive Processes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(4), pages 455-61, October.
- Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
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