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Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC

  • Mariam Camarero
  • Cecilio Tamarit

The aim of this paper is to find some empirical evidence on Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP) in the Spanish case vis à vis the European Community for the period 1980–89. The main contribution of the paper is the aggregation of the variables corresponding to the countries that participate in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Monetary System. The results support the importance of the interest differential as an explanatory variable for the short-term adjustment to the PPP. The results follow from powerful estimation techniques, applied in the framework of a multivariate error-correction model using the maximum-likelihood procedure as developed by Johansen and Juselius (1992). Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 1996

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/BF01886129
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Article provided by Springer in its journal Open Economies Review.

Volume (Year): 7 (1996)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
Pages: 61-76

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Handle: RePEc:kap:openec:v:7:y:1996:i:1:p:61-76
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  1. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
  2. Osterwald-Lenum, Michael, 1992. "A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 54(3), pages 461-72, August.
  3. Kim, Yoonbai, 1990. "Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run: A Cointegration Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 22(4), pages 491-503, November.
  4. Jeroen J. M. Kremers & Timothy D. Lane, 1992. "The Derivation of the Liquidity Ratio in the EMS: Reply to Arnold," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(1), pages 203-207, March.
  5. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
  6. P. Bekx & G. Tullio, 1989. "A note on the European Monetary System, and the determination of the DM-dollar exchange rate," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 123, pages 329-343.
  7. Frankel, Jeffrey A, 1979. "On the Mark: A Theory of Floating Exchange Rates Based on Real Interest Differentials," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(4), pages 610-22, September.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
  9. Lawrence H. Officer, 1982. "The Purchasing-Power-Parity Theory of Gerrard de Malynes," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 256-259, Summer.
  10. Frenkel, Jacob A, 1976. " A Monetary Approach to the Exchange Rate: Doctrinal Aspects and Empirical Evidence," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 78(2), pages 200-224.
  11. Perron, P., 1989. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Changing Mean," Papers 347, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
  12. Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
  13. Camarero, Mariam & Tamarit, Cecilio, 1995. "A rationale for macroeconomic policy coordination: Evidence based on the Spanish peseta," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 65-82, March.
  14. Hakkio, Craig S., 1984. "A re-examination of purchasing power parity : A multi-country and multi-period study," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3-4), pages 265-277, November.
  15. Andrew G Haldane & Mahmood Pradhan, 1992. "Testing real interest parity in the European Monetary System," Bank of England working papers 2, Bank of England.
  16. Fisher, Eric O'N & Park, Joon Y, 1991. "Testing Purchasing Power Parity under the Null Hypothesis of Co-integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(409), pages 1476-84, November.
  17. Andrew G Haldane & Mahmood Pradhan, 1992. "Real interest parity, dynamic convergence and the European Monetary System," Bank of England working papers 1, Bank of England.
  18. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Lubian, Diego, 1991. "Is there trend reversion in purchasing power parity?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1035-1055, July.
  19. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  20. Boero, G. & Burridge, P., 1991. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test for a Unit Root," Discussion Papers 91-26, Department of Economics, University of Birmingham.
  21. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
  22. Whitt, Joseph A, Jr, 1992. "The Long-Run Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate: A Reconsideration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 72-82, February.
  23. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
  24. Abuaf, Niso & Jorion, Philippe, 1990. " Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 157-74, March.
  25. Tronzano, Marco, 1992. "Long-Run purchasing Power Parity and Mean Reversion in Real Exchange Rates: A Further Assessment," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 45(1), pages 77-100.
  26. Adler, Michael & Lehmann, Bruce, 1983. " Deviations from Purchasing Power Parity in the Long Run," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(5), pages 1471-87, December.
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