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The Long-Run Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate: A Reconsideration

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  • Whitt, Joseph A, Jr

Abstract

Using a new statistical test, this paper provides empirical evidence that the real exchange rate is not a random walk. If the real exchange rate were a random walk, deviations from purchasing power parity could be expected to become unbounded as the forecast horizon became longer. Recently, Christopher A. Sims proposed a test based on Bayesian posterior odds ratios that is designed to discriminate between a unit root and a large but stationary autocorrelation coefficient. This paper applies the Sims test to real exchange rate data for six industrial countries. The results reject the random walk hypothesis. Copyright 1992 by Ohio State University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Whitt, Joseph A, Jr, 1992. "The Long-Run Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate: A Reconsideration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 24(1), pages 72-82, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:mcb:jmoncb:v:24:y:1992:i:1:p:72-82
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    1. Brennan, Michael J. & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 1982. "An Equilibrium Model of Bond Pricing and a Test of Market Efficiency," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(03), pages 301-329, September.
    2. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, "undated". "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 05-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
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    5. Backus, David K. & Gregory, Allan W. & Zin, Stanley E., 1989. "Risk premiums in the term structure : Evidence from artificial economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 371-399, November.
    6. John C. Cox & Jonathan E. Ingersoll Jr. & Stephen A. Ross, 2005. "A Theory Of The Term Structure Of Interest Rates," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Theory Of Valuation, chapter 5, pages 129-164 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    7. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1991. "Implications of Security Market Data for Models of Dynamic Economies," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 225-262, April.
    8. Ho, Thomas S Y & Lee, Sang-bin, 1986. " Term Structure Movements and Pricing Interest Rate Contingent Claims," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(5), pages 1011-1029, December.
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    10. Vasicek, Oldrich, 1977. "An equilibrium characterization of the term structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 177-188, November.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucio Sarno & Mark P. Taylor, 2002. "Purchasing Power Parity and the Real Exchange Rate," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 49(1), pages 1-5.
    2. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    3. Goldberg, Lawrence G. & Gosnell, Thomas F. & Okunev, John, 1997. "Purchasing power parity: Modeling and testing mean reversion," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(7), pages 949-966, July.
    4. Emmanuel Anoruo & Habtu Braha & Yusuf Ahmad, 2002. "Purchasing power parity: Evidence from developing Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 8(2), pages 85-96, May.
    5. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:28:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Rey, Serge & Varachaud, Pascal, 2000. "Le comportement des taux de change réels européens de la fin Bretton Woods à l’adoption de l’euro
      [The behavior of European real exchange rates from the Bretton Woods system end to the adoption of
      ," MPRA Paper 49502, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:kap:iaecre:v:8:y:2002:i:2:p:85-96 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Jaramillo Franco, Miguel & Serván Lozano, Sergio, 2012. "Modeling exchange rate dynamics in Peru: A cointegration approach using the UIP and PPP," MPRA Paper 70772, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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