IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/wsr/wpaper/y2013i118.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is the European debt crisis a mere balance of payments crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • David Guerreiro

Abstract

This paper is interested in linking formally external disequilibriums to the sovereign debt crisis the EMU is experiencing since 2009. Relying on the CHEER approach that connects the goods market to the capital market, we show that when a country belonging to a monetary union faces external disequilibrium relative to its main partner, the corresponding interest rate differential increases. Moreover, when these imbalances are persistent, it may trigger a balance of payments crisis. Our findings indicate that this phenomenon seems to be at play for the European countries under international assistance.

Suggested Citation

  • David Guerreiro, 2013. "Is the European debt crisis a mere balance of payments crisis?," FIW Working Paper series 118, FIW.
    • Handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:118
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.fiw.ac.at/fileadmin/Documents/Publikationen/Working_Paper/N_118-Guerreiro.pdf
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: none
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Beblavý,Miroslav & Cobham,David & Ódor,L'udovít (ed.), 2011. "The Euro Area and the Financial Crisis," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107014749, July.
    2. Sebastian Barnes & Jeremy Lawson & Artur Radziwill, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Euro Area: A Comparative Perspective," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 826, OECD Publishing.
    3. Guerreiro, David & Mignon, Valérie, 2013. "On price convergence in Eurozone," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 42-51.
    4. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    5. Mignon, Valérie & Guerreiro, David & Joëts, Marc, 2012. "Is Price Dynamics Homogeneous Across Eurozone Countries?," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 27, pages 609-632.
    6. C. Fred Bergsten, 2009. "Long-Term International Economic Position of the United States, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number sr20, April.
    7. Gonzalo, Jesus, 1994. "Five alternative methods of estimating long-run equilibrium relationships," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 203-233.
    8. Mariam Camarero & Cecilio Tamarit, 1996. "Cointegration and the PPP and the UIP hypotheses: An application to the Spanish integration in the EC," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 61-76, January.
    9. MacDonald, Ronald & Marsh, Ian W., 2004. "Currency spillovers and tri-polarity: a simultaneous model of the US dollar, German mark and Japanese yen," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 99-111, February.
    10. Chinn, Menzie D. & Prasad, Eswar S., 2003. "Medium-term determinants of current accounts in industrial and developing countries: an empirical exploration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(1), pages 47-76, January.
    11. Ronald MacDonald & Ian W. Marsh, 1997. "On Fundamentals And Exchange Rates: A Casselian Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(4), pages 655-664, November.
    12. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-325, August.
    13. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    14. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2006. "PPP in the medium run: The case of Norway," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 700-719, December.
    15. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    16. William R. Cline, 2005. "United States as a Debtor Nation, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 3993, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guerreiro, David, 2014. "Is the European debt crisis a mere balance of payments crisis?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(S1), pages 50-56.
    2. Jaramillo Franco, Miguel & Serván Lozano, Sergio, 2012. "Modeling exchange rate dynamics in Peru: A cointegration approach using the UIP and PPP," MPRA Paper 70772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Abdul RASHID, 2009. "Testing The Modified-Combined Ppp And Uip Hypothesis In South Asian Economies," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 9(1).
    4. Roman Frydman & Michael D. Goldberg, 2001. "Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the DM/$ Exchange Rate: Temporal Instability and the Monetary Model," Working Papers 50, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    5. Hunter, John & Menla Ali, Faek, 2014. "Money demand instability and real exchange rate persistence in the monetary model of USD–JPY exchange rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 42-51.
    6. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    7. repec:onb:oenbwp:y::i:50:b:1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Levent, Korap, 2007. "Modeling purchasing power parity using co-integration: evidence from Turkey," MPRA Paper 19584, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    10. Levent KORAP, 2008. "Exchange Rate Determination Of Tl/Us$:A Co-Integration Approach," Istanbul University Econometrics and Statistics e-Journal, Department of Econometrics, Faculty of Economics, Istanbul University, vol. 7(1), pages 24-50, May.
    11. Mariam Camarero & Josep Lluís Carrion‐i‐Silvestre & Cecilio Tamarit, 2021. "External imbalances from a GVAR perspective," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(11), pages 3202-3245, November.
    12. Lambelet, Jean-Christian & Mihailov, Alexander, 2005. "The Triple-Parity Law," Economics Discussion Papers 8896, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    13. Diamandis, Panayiotis F. & Georgoutsos, Dimitris A. & Kouretas, Georgios P., 2000. "The monetary model in the presence of I(2) components: long-run relationships, short-run dynamics and forecasting of the Greek drachma," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(6), pages 917-941, December.
    14. Panayiotis Diamantis & Dimitris Georgoutsos & George Kouretas, 2001. "The Monetary Approach in the Presence of I(2) Components: A Cointegration Analysis of the Official and Black Market for Foreign Currency in Latin America," Working Papers 0108, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    15. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2001. "Black and official exchange rates in Greece: an analysis of their long-run dynamics," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 295-314, July.
    16. Kębłowski, Piotr & Welfe, Aleksander, 2012. "A risk-driven approach to exchange rate modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1473-1482.
    17. Mariam Camarero & Alejandro Muñoz & Cecilio Tamarit, 2022. "The rise and fall of global financial flows in EU 15: new evidence using dynamic panels with common correlated effects," Working Papers 2212, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    18. Nikolaos Giannellis & Minoas Koukouritakis, 2016. "Eurozone's Leader and its Followers: Are their Markets Integrated Enough?," Working Papers 1607, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    19. Kouretas, Georgios P. & Zarangas, Leonidas P., 2000. "Wage Setting, Taxes, and Demand for Labor in Greece: A Multivariate Analysis of Cointegrating Relationships," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 171-195, March.
    20. Levent, Korap, 2008. "Testing international parity hypothesis in a multivariate identified co-integrating system: the Turkish evidence," MPRA Paper 20020, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2014. "Purchasing Power Parity Between the UK and Germany: The Euro Era," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(4), pages 677-699, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    balance of payments crisis; CHEER; debt crisis; external imbalances; Eurozone;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wsr:wpaper:y:2013:i:118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.