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Modelling African inflation rates: nonlinear deterministic terms and long-range dependence

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  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Hector Carcel
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

Abstract

This article estimates a fractional integration model with nonlinear deterministic trends for the inflation rates of five African countries. The results indicate that nonlinearities are present in the case of Angola and Lesotho, but not in the case of Botswana, Namibia and South Africa. Moreover, the degrees of differentiation are higher in the latter group of countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Hector Carcel & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2015. "Modelling African inflation rates: nonlinear deterministic terms and long-range dependence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(5), pages 421-424, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:22:y:2015:i:5:p:421-424
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.946181
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil‐Alana, 2007. "Nonlinearities and Fractional Integration in the US Unemployment Rate," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 69(4), pages 521-544, August.
    2. Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
    3. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
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    5. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 261-268, July.
    6. David K. Backus & Stanley E. Zin, 1993. "Long-memory inflation uncertainty: evidence from the term structure of interest rates," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 681-708.
    7. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
    8. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2012. "A Non-linear Approach with Long Range Dependence based on Chebyshev Polynomials," Faculty Working Papers 14/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    9. Engle, Robert F & Smith, Aaron, 1998. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt99v0s0zx, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    10. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
    11. Robert F. Engle & Aaron D. Smith, 1999. "Stochastic Permanent Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 553-574, November.
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    13. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
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    Cited by:

    1. Yaya O. S. & Akintande O. J. & Ogbonna A. E. & Adegoke H. M., 2019. "Cpi Inflation In Africa: Fractional Persistence, Mean Reversion And Nonlinearity," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 119-132, September.
    2. Cuestas Juan Carlos & Gil-Alana Luis Alberiko, 2016. "Testing for long memory in the presence of non-linear deterministic trends with Chebyshev polynomials," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 20(1), pages 57-74, February.
    3. repec:exl:29stat:v:20:y:2019:i:3:p:119- is not listed on IDEAS

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