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An Application of a Short Memory Model with Random Level Shifts to the Volatility of Latin American Stock Market Returns

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  • Rodríguez, Gabriel

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

  • Tramontana, Roxana

    (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Abstract

Empirical research indicates that the volatility of stock return time series have long memory. However, it has been demonstrated that short memory processes contaminated with random level shifts can often be confused as being long memory. Often this feature is referred to as spurious long memory. This paper represents an empirical study of the random level shift (RLS) model using the approach of Lu and Perron (2010) and Li and Perron (2013) for the volatility of daily stocks returns data for ve Latin American countries. The RLS model consists of the sum of a short term memory component and a level shift component, where the level shift component is governed by a Bernoulli process with a shift probability . The estimation results suggest that the level shifts in the volatility of daily stocks returns data are infrequent but once they are taken into account, the long memory characteristic and the GARCH e¤ects disappear. An out-of-sample forecasting exercise is also provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodríguez, Gabriel & Tramontana, Roxana, 2015. "An Application of a Short Memory Model with Random Level Shifts to the Volatility of Latin American Stock Market Returns," Working Papers 2015-004, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:wpaper:2015-004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Dennis Alvaro & Ángel Guillén & Gabriel Rodríguez, 2017. "Modelling the volatility of commodities prices using a stochastic volatility model with random level shifts," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 71-103, February.
    2. Gabriel Rodríguez, 2016. "Modeling Latin-American Stock and Forex Markets Volatility: Empirical Application of a Model with Random Level Shifts and Genuine Long Memory [Modelando la volatilidad de los mercados bursátiles y cam," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2016-416, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
    3. Gabriel Rodríguez & José Carlos Gonzáles Tanaka, 2016. "An Empirical Application of a Random Level Shifts Model with Time-Varying Probability and Mean Reversion to the Volatility of Latin-American Forex Markets Returns [Una aplicación empírica de un modelo," Documentos de Trabajo / Working Papers 2016-415, Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.

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    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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