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Lagrange Multiplier Tests For Fractional Difference

Author

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  • Christos Agiakloglou
  • Paul Newbold

Abstract

. This paper develops Lagrange multiplier tests of ARMA(p, q) models against fractional ARIMA(p, d, q) alternatives. The performance of the tests is investigated for moderate‐sized samples. It is concluded that fractional difference will be difficult to detect when the orders (p, q) are over‐specified in an autoregressive moving‐average (ARMA) analysis. The importance of distinguishing between the mean known and mean estimated cases in fractional difference models is illustrated in the context of these tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Christos Agiakloglou & Paul Newbold, 1994. "Lagrange Multiplier Tests For Fractional Difference," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(3), pages 253-262, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:jtsera:v:15:y:1994:i:3:p:253-262
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9892.1994.tb00190.x
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    Cited by:

    1. Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard, 2004. "Efficient Likelihood Inference In Nonstationary Univariate Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 116-146, February.
    2. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2018. "Testing the CVAR in the Fractional CVAR Model," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(6), pages 836-849, November.
    3. Nielsen M.O., 2004. "Optimal Residual-Based Tests for Fractional Cointegration and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 331-345, July.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2007. "A Multivariate Long Memory Model for the Specification of Real Output in the US, the UK, and Canada," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 6(2), pages 135-146, August.
    5. Morten Orregaard Nielsen, 2004. "Efficient inference in multivariate fractionally integrated time series models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 7(1), pages 63-97, June.
    6. Breitung, Jorg & Hassler, Uwe, 2002. "Inference on the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 167-185, October.
    7. Uwe Hassler & Matei Demetrescu & Adina Tarcolea, 2011. "Asymptotic normal tests for integration in panels with cross-dependent units," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 95(2), pages 187-204, June.
    8. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2015. "Bootstrap score tests for fractional integration in heteroskedastic ARFIMA models, with an application to price dynamics in commodity spot and futures markets," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(2), pages 557-579.
    9. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & Philipp Sibbertsen & Michelle Voges, 2024. "The stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium and the interdependence of lending rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2503-2538, December.
    10. Hamidreza Mostafaei & Leila Sakhabakhsh, 2012. "Using SARFIMA Model to Study and Predict the Iran s Oil Supply," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(1), pages 41-49.
    11. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2017. "Persistence and cycles in the us federal funds rate," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1-8.
    12. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Nielsen, Morten Ørregaard & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2017. "Quasi-maximum likelihood estimation and bootstrap inference in fractional time series models with heteroskedasticity of unknown form," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 198(1), pages 165-188.
    13. Hassler, Uwe & Breitung, Jörg, 2002. "A Residual-Based LM Test for Fractional Cointegration," Publications of Darmstadt Technical University, Institute for Business Studies (BWL) 37318, Darmstadt Technical University, Department of Business Administration, Economics and Law, Institute for Business Studies (BWL).
    14. Matei Demetrescu & Adina Tarcolea, 2008. "Bias correction for the regression-based LM fractional integration test," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 92(1), pages 91-99, February.
    15. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
    16. Javier Hualde & Morten {O}rregaard Nielsen, 2022. "Fractional integration and cointegration," Papers 2211.10235, arXiv.org.
    17. Jorge M. L. Andraz & Raúl F. C. Guerreiro & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2018. "Persistence of travel and leisure sector equity indices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(4), pages 1801-1825, June.
    18. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2005. "Multivariate Lagrange Multiplier Tests for Fractional Integration," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 3(3), pages 372-398.
    19. Ana Pérez & Esther Ruiz, 2002. "Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 26(3), pages 395-445, September.
    20. Hiemstra, Craig & Jones, Jonathan D., 1997. "Another look at long memory in common stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(4), pages 373-401, December.
    21. Jakob Roland Munch & Michael Svarer, "undated". "Mortality and Socio-economic Differences in a Competing Risks Model," Economics Working Papers 2001-1, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.

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