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House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles

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  • Angela Black
  • Patricia Fraser
  • Martin Hoesli

Abstract

This paper studies actual (real) house prices relative to fundamental (real) house values. Such a focus is warranted since housing constitutes a large fraction of most household portfolios, and its characteristics are such that, in contrast to what prevails in financial markets, arbitrage will be limited and hence correction toward 'true' value is likely to be a prolonged process. Using UK data and a time-varying present value approach, our results preclude the existence of an explosive rational bubble due to non-fundamental factors. We further find that intrinsic bubbles have an important role to play in determining actual house prices although price dynamics appear to impact, particularly in periods of strong deviation from fundamental value. Price dynamics are found to be driven by momentum behaviour. Copyright 2006 The Authors Journal compilation (c) 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Angela Black & Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli, 2006. "House Prices, Fundamentals and Bubbles," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(9-10), pages 1535-1555.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jbfnac:v:33:y:2006-11:i:9-10:p:1535-1555
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Patric Hendershott & Robert J. Hendershott & Bryan D. MacGregor, 2005. "Evidence on Rationality in Commercial Property Markets: An Interpretation and Critique," NBER Working Papers 11329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 2003. "Is There a Bubble in the Housing Market?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(2), pages 299-362.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Makojević Nikola & Veselinović Petar & Kalinić Ljubina, 2015. "Can a Multinational Company Create a Real Estate “Bubble” at the Local Level? The Case of Fiat and City of Kragujevac," Economic Themes, De Gruyter Open, vol. 53(4), pages 519-534, December.
    2. Carlos Pestana BARROS & Zhongfei CHEN & Luis A. GIL-ALANA, 2013. "Long Memory in the Housing Price Indices in China," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 3(7), pages 785-807, July.
    3. Nils Holinski & Robert Vermeulen, 2012. "The international wealth channel: a global error-correcting analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(3), pages 985-1010, December.
    4. Wen-Chi LIU, 2016. "Do Multiple Housing Bubbles Exist in China? Further Evidence from Generalized Sup ADF Tests," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 135-145, December.
    5. Montagnoli, Alberto & Nagayasu, Jun, 2015. "UK house price convergence clubs and spillovers," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 50-58.
    6. Erdem Basci & Ismail Saglam, 2008. "On Roots of Housing Bubbles," Working Papers 0803, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    7. Bourassa, Steven & Hoesli, Martin & Scognamiglio, Donato, 2010. "Housing finance, prices, and tenure in Switzerland," MPRA Paper 45990, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Shen, Chung-Hua & Lin, Kun-Li & Guo, Na, 2016. "Hawk or dove: Switching regression model for the monetary policy reaction function in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 94-111.
    9. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:293-311 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Alberto Montagnoli & Jun Nagaysu, 2013. "An investigation of housing affordability in the UK regions," Working Papers 1316, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    11. Patricia Fraser & Martin Hoesli & Lynn McAlevey, 2008. "House Prices and Bubbles in New Zealand," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 71-91, July.
    12. Holinski Nils & Vermeulen Robert, 2009. "The International Wealth Effect: A Global Error-Correcting Analysis," Research Memorandum 019, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    13. Ogonna Nneji & Chris Brooks & Charles Ward, 2011. "Intrinsic and Rational Speculative Bubbles in the U.S. Housing Market 1960-2009," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-01, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    14. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1127-z is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Rose N. Lai & Robert A. Van Order, 2010. "Momentum and House Price Growth in the United States: Anatomy of a Bubble," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 38(4), pages 753-773, Winter.
    16. Wei, Peihwang & Yang, Xiaolou, 2012. "Do investors value REITs and Non-REITs differently?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 295-302.
    17. Zhou, Zhengyi, 2016. "Overreaction to policy changes in the housing market: Evidence from Shanghai," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 26-41.
    18. Charalambos Pitros, 2014. "UK housing bubble case study analysis: The ‘‘behaviour’’ of UK housing bubbles and the ‘‘affordability’’ parameter," ERES eres2014_4, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    19. Wen-Yi Chen & Yia-Wun Liang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2016. "Is the United States in the middle of a healthcare bubble?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(1), pages 99-111, January.
    20. Wen-Yi Chen & Yia-Wun Liang & Yu-Hui Lin, 2016. "Is the United States in the middle of a healthcare bubble?," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 17(1), pages 99-111, January.
    21. repec:spr:empeco:v:52:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1101-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:spr:empeco:v:53:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-016-1138-9 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. repec:taf:oaefxx:v:3:y:2015:i:1:p:1002152 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Fry, J. M., 2010. "Bubbles and crashes in finance: A phase transition from random to deterministic behaviour in prices," MPRA Paper 24778, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Nagayasu, Jun, 2016. "Inflation and Bubbles in the Japanese Condominium Market," MPRA Paper 71192, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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