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Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition

Author

Listed:
  • Ferrara, L.
  • Koopman, S J.

Abstract

The 2007 sub-prime crisis in the United States, prolonged by a severe economic recession spread over many countries around the world, has led many economic researchers to focus on the recent fluctuations in housing prices and their relationships with macroeconomics and monetary policies. The existence of common housing cycles among the countries of the euro zone could lead the European Central Bank to integrate more specifically the evolution of such asset prices in its assessment. In this paper, we implement a multivariate unobserved component model on housing market variables in order to assess the common euro area housing cycle and to evaluate its relationship with the economic cycle. Among the general class of multivariate unobserved component models, we implement the band-pass filter based on the trend plus cycle decomposition model and we allow the existence of two cycles of different periods. The dataset consists of gross domestic product and real house prices series for four main euro area countries (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). Empirical results show a strong relationship for business cycles in France, Italy and Spain. Moreover, French and Spanish house prices cycles appear to be strongly related, while the German one possesses its own dynamics. Finally, we find that GDP and house prices cycles are related in the medium-term for fluctuations between 4 and 8 years, while the housing market contributes to the long-term economic growth only in Spain and Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferrara, L. & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.
  • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:275
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    6. Valle e Azevedo, Joao & Koopman, Siem Jan & Rua, Antonio, 2006. "Tracking the Business Cycle of the Euro Area: A Multivariate Model-Based Bandpass Filter," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 24, pages 278-290, July.
    7. Claudio Borio & Patrick McGuire, 2004. "Twin peaks in equity and housing prices?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Fondeur, Y. & Karamé, F., 2013. "Can Google data help predict French youth unemployment?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 117-125.
    2. William Miles, 2021. "Scottish home prices: compatible with Euro membership?," European Journal of Comparative Economics, Cattaneo University (LIUC), vol. 18(1), pages 3-22, June.
    3. Aye, Goodness C. & Balcilar, Mehmet & Bosch, Adél & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Housing and the business cycle in South Africa," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 471-491.
    4. Laia Maynou & Bruce Morley & Mercedes Monfort & Javier Ordóñez, 2020. "House price convergence Across Europe," Working Papers 2020/07, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    5. Christophe André, 2010. "A Bird's Eye View of OECD Housing Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 746, OECD Publishing.
    6. Rangan Gupta & Christophe André & Luis Gil-Alana, 2015. "Comovement in Euro area housing prices: A fractional cointegration approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(16), pages 3123-3143, December.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2013. "France: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Housing Prices and Financial Stability," IMF Staff Country Reports 2013/184, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Ozdemir Dicle, 2020. "Time-Varying Housing Market Fluctuations: Evidence from the U.S. Housing Market," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 28(2), pages 89-99, June.
    9. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Côte d’Ivoire: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Progress Report of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/184, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Ferrara, L. & Vigna, O., 2009. "Cyclical relationships between GDP and housing market in France: Facts and factors at play," Working papers 268, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; Business cycles; Euro area; Unobserved components model.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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