IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aif/journl/v1y2017i2p1-36.html

Investigating The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) In Two SAARC Countries: Nepal and Pakistan

Author

Listed:
  • Md. Saiful Islam
  • Shaikh Mostak Ahammad

Abstract

This study examines the matter of trends (level and slope), cycle and irregular components in the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) of two SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation) countries: Nepal and Pakistan. SAARC countries produce GDP (PPP) US$ 9.9 trillion and GDP (Nominal) US$ 2.9 trillion and constitute 9.12% of global economy as of 2015. The mentioned two countries from this region are selected due to their importance in the SAARC region and their challenges during last few decades i.e. Political crisis and natural disasters. In this study the multivariate unobserved components model is used to decompose the GDP and HCE and examine the relationships between these two variables of Nepal and Pakistan. The time period of this study is 1970-2014 and Kushnirs statistical data is employed. The maximum likelihood smoother is employed in the trend plus stochastic cycle methodology of Koopman et al. (2009) to estimate the model. It is found here that there have no deficiencies in the diagnostics of normality, auxiliary, prediction, and forecast. And residual diagnostics also present that it is nicely fitted with this model. Empirical results clearly show that there have strong correlations between the GDP and HCE in irregular components in both the countries of Nepal and Pakistan. Finally, in both slope and cycle, the correlations between GDP and HCE of Nepal and Pakistan are found perfectly positive in the short and long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Md. Saiful Islam & Shaikh Mostak Ahammad, 2017. "Investigating The Relationship Between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Household Consumption Expenditure (HCE) In Two SAARC Countries: Nepal and Pakistan," International Journal of Science and Business, IJSAB International, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:aif:journl:v:1:y:2017:i:2:p:1-36
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijsab.com/wp-content/uploads/101.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijsab.com/volume-1/issue-2/272
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Laurent Ferrara & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.
    2. Constantin ANGHELACHE, 2011. "Analysis of the Correlation between GDP and the Final Consumption," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(9(562)), pages 129-138, September.
    3. Mitra, Sinchan & Sinclair, Tara M., 2012. "Output Fluctuations In The G-7: An Unobserved Components Approach," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(3), pages 396-422, June.
    4. Milton Friedman, 1957. "A Theory of the Consumption Function," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie57-1, September.
    5. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kontonikas, Alexandros & Montagnoli, Alberto, 2012. "Asset prices, credit and the business cycle," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 117(3), pages 857-861.
    6. Milton Friedman, 1957. "Introduction to "A Theory of the Consumption Function"," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 1-6, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Duclos, Jean-Yves, 1998. "Social evaluation functions, economic isolation and the Suits index of progressivity," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 103-121, July.
    2. Andrew E. Clark, 2003. "Unemployment as a Social Norm: Psychological Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 21(2), pages 289-322, April.
    3. Bunting, David, 2009. "The saving decline: Macro-facts, micro-behavior," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 70(1-2), pages 282-295, May.
    4. Duclos, J.Y., 1995. "Economic Isolation, Inequality, and the Suits Index of Progressivity," Papers 9510, Laval - Recherche en Politique Economique.
    5. EKOJA, Ematun Vivian & OLANIYI, Oyinlola & IHUOMA, Anthony, 2024. "Determinants of Household Consumption Pattern in Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja," International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science, International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), vol. 8(12), pages 388-411, December.
    6. Jung Sakong, 2021. "Effect of Ownership Composition on Property Prices and Rents: Evidence from Chinese Investment Boom in US Housing Markets," Working Paper Series WP-2021-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    7. Lang, Harald, 1987. "Herman Wold on Optimal Properties of Exponentially Weighted Forecasts," Working Paper Series 179, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    8. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Günther, Jutta & Loose, Brigitte & Ludwig, Udo & Nulsch, Nicole, 2015. "Can R&D subsidies counteract the economic crisis? – Macroeconomic effects in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 623-633.
    9. Sadullah Çelik & Yasemin Özerkek, 2008. "Panel cointegration analysis of consumer confidence and personal consumption in the European Union," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 161-168, February.
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f0uohitsgqh8dhk9814kl7606 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ricardo Barradas & Ines Tomas, 2023. "Household indebtedness in the European Union countries: Going beyond the mainstream interpretation," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 76(304), pages 21-49.
    12. Alok Bhargava, 2006. "Modelling the Health of Filipino Children," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Econometrics, Statistics And Computational Approaches In Food And Health Sciences, chapter 11, pages 153-168, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Iheonu O Chimere & Tochukwu Nwachukwu, 2020. "Macroeconomic determinants of household consumption in selected West African countries," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(2), pages 1596-1606.
    14. Dohtani, Akitaka, 2010. "A growth-cycle model of Solow-Swan type, I," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 76(2), pages 428-444, November.
    15. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2014. "Monetary transmission mechanism analysis in a small, open economy: the case of Vietnam," OSF Preprints ybc8p, Center for Open Science.
    16. Roberto Tamborini, 2007. "Rescuing the LM (and the money market) in a modern Macro course," Department of Economics Working Papers 0706, Department of Economics, University of Trento, Italia.
    17. Klos, Alexander & Rottke, Simon, 2013. "Saving and Consumption When Children Move Out," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79786, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Diana K. L. Ngo & Luc Christiaensen, 2019. "The Performance Of A Consumption Augmented Asset Index In Ranking Households And Identifying The Poor," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 65(4), pages 804-833, December.
    19. Christian Johnson & George G Kaufman, 2007. "Un banco, con cualquier otro nombre…," Boletín, CEMLA, vol. 0(4), pages 185-199, Octubre-d.
    20. Yi Wen, 2011. "Making sense of China’s astronomical foreign reserves," Working Papers 2011-018, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    21. David Brady & Marco Giesselmann & Ulrich Kohler & Anke Radenacker, 2018. "How to measure and proxy permanent income: evidence from Germany and the U.S," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 16(3), pages 321-345, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aif:journl:v:1:y:2017:i:2:p:1-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Farjana Rahman (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.