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Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?

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  • NICHOLAS DI VENUTO
  • ALLAN LAYTON

Abstract

The paper re-examines the issue of duration dependence in the Australian classical and growth business cycles in light of the somewhat surprising results obtained recently by Cashin and Ouliaris (2004). In so doing the authors use the multinomial logit regime switching modelling approach of Layton and Smith (2003). The paper also represents an extension of the earlier work on the issue undertaken by Bodman (1998); the key extensions being that the issue is framed within an explicit established business cycle chronology, a leading index is also included within the analysis, and the growth cycle, in addition to the classical cycle, is considered. Strong evidence of duration dependence is found for periods of recession within the classical cycle and for both phases of the growth cycle. Moderate evidence of duration dependency is also found for periods of classical cycle expansion. However, the evidence in this regard is significantly reduced once movements in the leading index are included in the analysis with its movements exhibiting strong power in predicting the termination of classical business cycle expansions. For growth cycles, duration dependence symmetry is found across both phases of the cycle. Copyright Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University 2005..

Suggested Citation

  • Nicholas Di Venuto & Allan Layton, 2005. "Do The Phases Of The Business Cycle Die Of Old Age?," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 290-305, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ausecp:v:44:y:2005:i:3:p:290-305
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Some Econometric Analysis Of Constructed Binary Time Series," CAMA Working Papers 2005-07, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1, April.
    3. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters,in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Arthur F. Burns, 1969. "The Business Cycle in a Changing World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number burn69-1, April.
    5. Allan P. Layton & Daniel R. Smith, 2003. "Duration Dependence In The Us Business Cycle," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 152, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
    2. Castro, Vítor, 2010. "The duration of economic expansions and recessions: More than duration dependence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 347-365, March.
    3. David Shepherd & Robert Dixon, 2008. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 84(264), pages 34-49, March.
    4. Vitor Castro, 2013. "The duration of business cycle expansions and contractions: are there change-points in duration dependence?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(2), pages 511-544, April.
    5. Vítor Castro, 2011. "The Portuguese Business Cycle: Chronology and Duration Dependence," NIPE Working Papers 11/2011, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

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