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Growth Collapses

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Ricardo Hausmann

    (Harvard University)

  • Francisco Rodríguez

    ()

    (Economics Department, Wesleyan University)

  • Rodrigo Wagner

    (Harvard University)

Abstract

We study episodes where economic growth decelerates to negative rates. While the majority of these episodes are of short duration, a substantial fraction last for a longer period of time than can be explained as the result of business-cycle dynamics. The duration, depth and associated output loss of these episodes differs dramatically across regions. We investigate the factors associated with the entry of countries into these episodes as well as their duration. We find that while countries fall into crises for multiple reasons, including wars, export collapses, sudden stops and political transitions, most of these variables do not help predict the duration of crises episodes. In contrast, we find that a measure of the density of a country’s export product space is significantly associated with lower crisis duration. We also find that unconditional and conditional hazard rates are decreasing in time, a fact that is consistent with either strong shocks to fundamentals or with models of poverty traps.

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File URL: http://repec.wesleyan.edu/pdf/frrodriguez/2006024_rodriguez.pdf
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Paper provided by Wesleyan University, Department of Economics in its series Wesleyan Economics Working Papers with number 2006-024.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2006
Handle: RePEc:wes:weswpa:2006-024
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Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
  • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
  • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
  • O25 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Industrial Policy

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  1. Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23.
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  8. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Ernesto Talvi, 2006. "Phoenix Miracles in Emerging Markets: Recovering without Credit from Systemic Financial Crises," Research Department Publications 4474, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006. "Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
  10. Ricardo Hausmann & Jason Hwang & Dani Rodrik, 2007. "What you export matters," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 1-25, March.
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  14. Hausmann, Ricardo & Klinger, Bailey, 2006. "Structural Transformation and Patterns of Comparative Advantage in the Product Space," Working Paper Series rwp06-041, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  15. Bodman, Philip M, 1998. "Asymmetry and Duration Dependence in Australian GDP and Unemployment," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 74(227), pages 399-411, December.
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  17. Terence Mills, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetry and duration dependence: An international perspective," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 713-724.
  18. Imbs, Jean, 2002. "Why the Link Between Volatility and Growth is Both Positive and Negative," CEPR Discussion Papers 3561, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  19. Lancaster,Tony, 1992. "The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521437899, November.
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