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Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001

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  • Sanjay Reddy
  • Camelia Minoiu

Abstract

This paper examines the phenomenon of real-income stagnation (in which real-income growth is uninterruptedly negligible or negative for a sizable sequence of years). We analyse data for four decades from a large cross-section of countries. Real income stagnation is a conceptually distinct phenomenon from low average growth and other features of the growth sequence that have been previously considered. We find that real income stagnation has affected a significant number of countries (103 out of 168), and resulted in substantial income loss. Countries that suffered spells of real income stagnation were more likely to be poor, in Latin America or sub-Saharan Africa, conflict ridden and dependent on primary commodity exports. Stagnation is also very likely to persist over time. Countries that were afflicted with stagnation in the 1960s had a likelihood of 75 per cent of also being afflicted with stagnation in the 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Sanjay Reddy & Camelia Minoiu, 2009. "Real Income Stagnation of Countries 1960-2001," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(1), pages 1-23.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:jdevst:v:45:y:2009:i:1:p:1-23
    DOI: 10.1080/00220380802265249
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    1. Francisco Rodríguez, 2008. "An Empirical Test of the Poverty Traps Hypothesis," Wesleyan Economics Working Papers 2008-005, Wesleyan University, Department of Economics.
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    3. Branko Milanovic, 2012. "Global inequality recalculated and updated: the effect of new PPP estimates on global inequality and 2005 estimates," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 10(1), pages 1-18, March.
    4. Berg, Andrew & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2012. "What makes growth sustained?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 149-166.
    5. Richard Bluhm & Denis de Crombrugghe & Adam Szirmai, 0. "Do Weak Institutions Prolong Crises? On the Identification, Characteristics, and Duration of Declines during Economic Slumps," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 34(3), pages 810-832.
    6. Isabel Ortiz & Matthew Cummins, 2011. "Global Inequality: Beyond the Bottom Billion – A Rapid Review of Income Distribution in 141 Countries," Working papers 1102, UNICEF,Division of Policy and Strategy.
    7. Milanovic, Branko, 2009. "Global inequality recalculated : the effect of new 2005 PPP estimates on global inequality," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5061, The World Bank.
    8. Ricardo Hausmann & Rodrigo Wagner & Francisco Rodriguez, 2006. "Growth Collapses," CID Working Papers 136, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    9. Bluhm, Richard & Crombrugghe, Denis de & Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Explaining the dynamics of stagnation: An empirical examination of the North, Wallis and Weingast approach," MERIT Working Papers 2012-040, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Breuer, Janice Boucher & McDermott, John, 2013. "Economic depression in the world," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 227-242.
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    13. Ms. Catherine A Pattillo & Mr. Nikola Spatafora & Mr. Andrew Berg & Mr. Chris Papageorgiou, 2010. "The End of An Era? the Medium- and Long-Term Effects of the Global Crisison Growth in Low-Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2010/205, International Monetary Fund.
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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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