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When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for the People's Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Park, Donghyun

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Eichengreen, Barry

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Shin, Kwanho

    (Korea University)

Abstract

Using international data starting 1957, this paper constructs a sample of cases where fast-growing economies slow down. The evidence suggests that rapidly growing economies slow down significantly, in the sense that the growth rate downshifts by at least 2 percentage points when their per capita incomes reach around $17,000 in year-2005 constant international prices, a level that the People's Republic of China should achieve by or soon after 2015. Among more provocative findings is that growth slowdowns are more likely in countries that maintain undervalued real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Donghyun & Eichengreen, Barry & Shin, Kwanho, 2011. "When Fast Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for the People's Republic of China," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 262, Asian Development Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbewp:0262
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; international data; per capita incomes; real exchange rates; slowdown;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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