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The duration of recessions follows an exponential not a power law

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  • Ian Wright

Abstract

Ormerod and Mounfield analysed GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and concluded that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power-law. But in fact the data is consistent with an exponential (Boltzmann-Gibbs) law.

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File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0311585
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Paper provided by arXiv.org in its series Papers with number cond-mat/0311585.

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Date of creation: Nov 2003
Date of revision: Mar 2011
Publication status: Published in Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, 345, 3-4, pp. 608-610, 2005
Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:cond-mat/0311585
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://arxiv.org/

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  1. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.
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Cited by:

  1. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2014. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Complex Evolving Economies," GREDEG Working Papers 2014-07, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), University of Nice Sophia Antipolis.
  2. Wright, Ian, 2005. "The social architecture of capitalism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 589-620.
  3. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2014. "The Short- and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," LEM Papers Series 2014/22, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  4. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  5. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127, arXiv.org.
  6. Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2008. "Power law for the duration of recession and prosperity in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6330-6336.
  7. Fabio Clementi & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Growth and Cycles of the Italian Economy Since 1861: The New Evidence," Italian Economic Journal- A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 25-59, March.
  8. Lavička, H. & Lin, L. & Novotný, J., 2010. "Employment, Production and Consumption model: Patterns of phase transitions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(8), pages 1708-1720.
  9. Wright, Ian, 2008. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics Discussion Papers 2008-41, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).

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