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Power laws and macroeconomic fluctuations

  • Gaffeo, Edoardo
  • Gallegati, Mauro
  • Giulioni, Gianfranco
  • Palestrini, Antonio

We study the duration distribution of recessions and recoveries occurred in a pool of industrialized countries during the last 120 years. We find that for recessions the duration is distributed according to a power law, and that the power exponent is virtually invariant as we split up the time span into sub-periods. The evidence regarding the duration of recoveries is mixed, however.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437102018915
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications.

Volume (Year): 324 (2003)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 408-416

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Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:324:y:2003:i:1:p:408-416
DOI: 10.1016/S0378-4371(02)01891-5
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/

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  1. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.
  2. Stanley, Michael H. R. & Buldyrev, Sergey V. & Havlin, Shlomo & Mantegna, Rosario N. & Salinger, Michael A. & Eugene Stanley, H., 1995. "Zipf plots and the size distribution of firms," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 453-457, October.
  3. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
  4. Canning, D. & Amaral, L. A. N. & Lee, Y. & Meyer, M. & Stanley, H. E., 1998. "Scaling the volatility of GDP growth rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 335-341, September.
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