Empirical results on the size distribution of business cycle phases
We study the size distribution of business cycles phases, that is expansions and contractions, for a sample of 16 industrialized countries over 120 years. We find that the best-fitting distribution for both expansions and contractions is Weibull, meaning that business cycles possess a characteristic scale. Furthermore, we discuss how parameters’ estimates can be used to make inference on the probability a typical episode ends, that is on what economists call turning points.
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Volume (Year): 333 (2004)
Issue (Month): C ()
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