The duration of recessions follows an exponential not a power law
Ormerod and Mounfield (Physica A 293 (2001) 573) analyse GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and conclude that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power law. But in fact the data is consistent with an exponential (Boltzmann–Gibbs) law.
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Volume (Year): 345 (2005)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
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- Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.