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The duration of recessions follows an exponential not a power law

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  • Wright, Ian

Abstract

Ormerod and Mounfield (Physica A 293 (2001) 573) analyse GDP data of 17 leading capitalist economies from 1870 to 1994 and conclude that the frequency of the duration of recessions is consistent with a power law. But in fact the data is consistent with an exponential (Boltzmann–Gibbs) law.

Suggested Citation

  • Wright, Ian, 2005. "The duration of recessions follows an exponential not a power law," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 608-610.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:345:y:2005:i:3:p:608-610
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2004.07.035
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ormerod, Paul & Mounfield, Craig, 2001. "Power law distribution of the duration and magnitude of recessions in capitalist economies: breakdown of scaling," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 293(3), pages 573-582.
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    Cited by:

    1. Wright, Ian, 2005. "The social architecture of capitalism," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 589-620.
    2. Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Sandro Sapio, 2017. "Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent-based integrated assessment model," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4hs7liq1f49, Sciences Po.
    3. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Napoletano, Mauro & Roventini, Andrea & Treibich, Tania, 2015. "Fiscal and monetary policies in complex evolving economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 166-189.
    4. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Tania Treibich, 2017. "Micro and macro policies in the Keynes+Schumpeter evolutionary models," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 27(1), pages 63-90, January.
    5. Wright, Ian, 2009. "Implicit Microfoundations for Macroeconomics," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-27.
    6. Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Tania Treibich, 2014. "The Short-and Long-Run Damages of Fiscal Austerity: Keynes beyond Schumpeter," Sciences Po publications 22, Sciences Po.
    7. Krug, Sebastian, 2015. "The interaction between monetary and macroprudential policy: Should central banks "lean against the wind" to foster macrofinancial stability?," Economics Working Papers 2015-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    8. Marcel Ausloos, 2014. "A biased view of a few possible components when reflecting on the present decade financial and economic crisis," Papers 1412.0127, arXiv.org.
    9. Lavička, H. & Lin, L. & Novotný, J., 2010. "Employment, Production and Consumption model: Patterns of phase transitions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(8), pages 1708-1720.
    10. Redelico, Francisco O. & Proto, Araceli N. & Ausloos, Marcel, 2008. "Power law for the duration of recession and prosperity in Latin American countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(25), pages 6330-6336.
    11. Fabio Clementi & Marco Gallegati & Mauro Gallegati, 2015. "Growth and Cycles of the Italian Economy Since 1861: The New Evidence," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 1(1), pages 25-59, March.

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    Keywords

    Econophysics; Power laws; Exponential laws;

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