Forecasting Swiss Exports using Bayesian Forecast Reconciliation
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.3929/ethz-b-000354388
Download full text from publisher
Other versions of this item:
- Eckert, Florian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2021. "Forecasting Swiss exports using Bayesian forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 291(2), pages 693-710.
- Florian Eckert & Rob J Hyndman & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2019. "Forecasting Swiss Exports Using Bayesian Forecast Reconciliation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 14/19, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
References listed on IDEAS
- Barthélémy Bonadio & Andreas M Fischer & Philip Sauré, 2020.
"The Speed of Exchange Rate Pass-Through,"
Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 506-538.
- Barthélémy Bonadio & Andreas M. Fischer & Philip Saure, 2016. "The speed of exchange rate pass-through," Globalization Institute Working Papers 282, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Fischer, Andreas & Sauré, Philip, 2016. "The speed of the exchange rate pass-through," CEPR Discussion Papers 11195, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Barthélémy Bonadio & Andreas M. Fischer & Philip U. Sauré, 2018. "The speed of exchange rate pass-through," Working Papers 2018-05, Swiss National Bank.
- Kapetanios, G. & Mitchell, J. & Price, S. & Fawcett, N., 2015.
"Generalised density forecast combinations,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(1), pages 150-165.
- Fawcett, Nicholas & Kapetanios, George & Mitchell, James & Price, Simon, 2013. "Generalised Density Forecast Combinations," EMF Research Papers 05, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.
- N. Fawcett & G. Kapetanios & J. Mitchell & S. Price, 2014. "Generalised Density Forecast Combinations," CAMA Working Papers 2014-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
- Fawcett, Nicholas & Kapetanios, George & Mitchell, James & Price, Simon, 2014. "Generalised density forecast combinations," Bank of England working papers 492, Bank of England.
- Gianni Amisano & John Geweke, 2017.
"Prediction Using Several Macroeconomic Models,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(5), pages 912-925, December.
- Amisano, Gianni & Geweke, John, 2013. "Prediction using several macroeconomic models," Working Paper Series 1537, European Central Bank.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008.
"Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R,"
Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
- Rob J. Hyndman & Yeasmin Khandakar, 2007. "Automatic time series forecasting: the forecast package for R," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 6/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Ahmed, Roman A. & Athanasopoulos, George & Shang, Han Lin, 2011.
"Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(9), pages 2579-2589, September.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Roman A. Ahmed & George Athanasopoulos, 2007. "Optimal combination forecasts for hierarchical time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 9/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Athanasopoulos, George, 2019.
"Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism,"
Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 393-409.
- Nikolaos Kourentzes & George Athanasopoulos, 2018. "Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 24/18, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002.
"Comparing Predictive Accuracy,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
- Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 1995. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(3), pages 253-263, July.
- Francis X. Diebold & Roberto S. Mariano, 1994. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," NBER Technical Working Papers 0169, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kang, Yanfei & Hyndman, Rob J. & Smith-Miles, Kate, 2017.
"Visualising forecasting algorithm performance using time series instance spaces,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 345-358.
- Yanfei Kang & Rob J. Hyndman & Kate Smith-Miles, 2016. "Visualising forecasting Algorithm Performance using Time Series Instance Spaces," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 10/16, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Jeon, Jooyoung & Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2019. "Probabilistic forecast reconciliation with applications to wind power and electric load," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 279(2), pages 364-379.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 515-554, Elsevier.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2006.
"Forecast Combinations,"
Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196,
Elsevier.
- Timmermann, Allan, 2005. "Forecast Combinations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5361, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marco Aiolfi & Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," CREATES Research Papers 2010-21, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Aiolfi Marco & Capistrán Carlos & Timmermann Allan, 2010. "Forecast Combinations," Working Papers 2010-04, Banco de México.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Koehler, Anne B., 2006.
"Another look at measures of forecast accuracy,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 679-688.
- Rob J. Hyndman & Anne B. Koehler, 2005. "Another Look at Measures of Forecast Accuracy," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 13/05, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Capistrán, Carlos & Timmermann, Allan, 2009.
"Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 428-440.
- Timmermann Allan & Capistrán Carlos, 2006. "Forecast Combination with Entry and Exit of Experts," Working Papers 2006-08, Banco de México.
- Carlos Capistrán & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "Forecast Combination With Entry and Exit of Experts," CREATES Research Papers 2008-55, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
- Shanika L. Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2019.
"Optimal Forecast Reconciliation for Hierarchical and Grouped Time Series Through Trace Minimization,"
Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 114(526), pages 804-819, April.
- Shanika L. Wickramasuriya & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J. Hyndman, 2017. "Optimal forecast reconciliation for hierarchical and grouped time series through trace minimization," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 22/17, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2017.
"Forecasting with temporal hierarchies,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 60-74.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Fotios Petropoulos, 2015. "Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 16/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2015. "Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies," MPRA Paper 66362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bergmeir, Christoph & Hyndman, Rob J. & Benítez, José M., 2016.
"Bagging exponential smoothing methods using STL decomposition and Box–Cox transformation,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 303-312.
- Christoph Bergmeir & Rob J Hyndman & Jose M Benitez, 2014. "Bagging Exponential Smoothing Methods using STL Decomposition and Box-Cox Transformation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 11/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Pennings, Clint L.P. & van Dalen, Jan, 2017. "Integrated hierarchical forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 263(2), pages 412-418.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Ahmed, Roman A. & Hyndman, Rob J., 2009.
"Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 146-166.
- George Athanasopoulos & Roman A. Ahmed & Rob J. Hyndman, 2007. "Hierarchical forecasts for Australian domestic tourism," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 12/07, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, revised Nov 2007.
- Conflitti, Cristina & De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico, 2015.
"Optimal combination of survey forecasts,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1096-1103.
- Cristina Conflitti & Christine De Mol & Domenico Giannone, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2012-023, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Giannone, Domenico & De Mol, Christine & Conflitti, Cristina, 2012. "Optimal Combination of Survey Forecasts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
- Hyndman, Rob J. & Lee, Alan J. & Wang, Earo, 2016.
"Fast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series,"
Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 16-32.
- Rob J Hyndman & Alan Lee & Earo Wang, 2014. "Fast computation of reconciled forecasts for hierarchical and grouped time series," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 17/14, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
- Mustonen, Seppo, 1997. "A measure for total variability in multivariate normal distribution," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 321-334, January.
- G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
- Zellner, Arnold & Ando, Tomohiro, 2010. "A direct Monte Carlo approach for Bayesian analysis of the seemingly unrelated regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 159(1), pages 33-45, November.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024.
"Forecast reconciliation: A review,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Forecast Reconciliation: A Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Koop, Gary & McIntyre, Stuart & Mitchell, James & Poon, Aubrey, 2024.
"Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 626-640.
- Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2022. "Using stochastic hierarchical aggregation constraints to nowcast regional economic aggregates," Working Papers 22-06, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Gamakumara, Puwasala & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2023.
"Probabilistic forecast reconciliation: Properties, evaluation and score optimisation,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 693-706.
- Anastasios Panagiotelis & Puwasala Gamakumara & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2020. "Probabilistic Forecast Reconciliation: Properties, Evaluation and Score Optimisation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 26/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Ye, Yuan & Lu, Yonggang & Robinson, Powell & Narayanan, Arunachalam, 2022. "An empirical Bayes approach to incorporating demand intermittency and irregularity into inventory control," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 303(1), pages 255-272.
- Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nystrup, Peter & Madsen, Henrik, 2024. "Likelihood-based inference in temporal hierarchies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 515-531.
- Di Fonzo, Tommaso & Girolimetto, Daniele, 2023. "Cross-temporal forecast reconciliation: Optimal combination method and heuristic alternatives," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 39-57.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022.
"Forecasting: theory and practice,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
- Nystrup, Peter & Lindström, Erik & Møller, Jan K. & Madsen, Henrik, 2021. "Dimensionality reduction in forecasting with temporal hierarchies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1127-1146.
- Yang, Dazhi & van der Meer, Dennis, 2021. "Post-processing in solar forecasting: Ten overarching thinking tools," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
- Hollyman, Ross & Petropoulos, Fotios & Tipping, Michael E., 2021. "Understanding forecast reconciliation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 294(1), pages 149-160.
- Kang, Yanfei & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Petropoulos, Fotios & Athiniotis, Nikolaos & Li, Feng & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2021. "Déjà vu: A data-centric forecasting approach through time series cross-similarity," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 719-731.
- Di Fonzo, Tommaso & Girolimetto, Daniele, 2024. "Forecast combination-based forecast reconciliation: Insights and extensions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 490-514.
- Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nystrup, Peter & Madsen, Henrik, 2024. "Likelihood-based inference in temporal hierarchies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 515-531.
- Li, Li & Kang, Yanfei & Li, Feng, 2023.
"Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1287-1302.
- Li Li & Yanfei Kang & Feng Li, 2021. "Bayesian forecast combination using time-varying features," Papers 2108.02082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2022.
- Wang, Xiaoqian & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng & Kang, Yanfei, 2023. "Forecast combinations: An over 50-year review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1518-1547.
- Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Gamakumara, Puwasala & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J., 2023.
"Probabilistic forecast reconciliation: Properties, evaluation and score optimisation,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 306(2), pages 693-706.
- Anastasios Panagiotelis & Puwasala Gamakumara & George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman, 2020. "Probabilistic Forecast Reconciliation: Properties, Evaluation and Score Optimisation," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 26/20, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Panagiotelis, Anastasios, 2024.
"Forecast reconciliation: A review,"
International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 430-456.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Anastasios Panagiotelis, 2023. "Forecast Reconciliation: A Review," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 8/23, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Zhang, Bohan & Kang, Yanfei & Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Li, Feng, 2023.
"Optimal reconciliation with immutable forecasts,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 308(2), pages 650-660.
- Bohan Zhang & Yanfei Kang & Anastasios Panagiotelis & Feng Li, 2022. "Optimal reconciliation with immutable forecasts," Papers 2204.09231, arXiv.org.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2016.
"Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1312-1332, November.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal Portfolio Choice under Decision-Based Model Combinations," Working Papers 80, Brandeis University, Department of Economics and International Business School.
- Davide Pettenuzzo & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Optimal portfolio choice under decision-based model combinations," Working Paper 2014/15, Norges Bank.
- Pritularga, Kandrika F. & Svetunkov, Ivan & Kourentzes, Nikolaos, 2021. "Stochastic coherency in forecast reconciliation," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2017.
"Forecasting with temporal hierarchies,"
European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 262(1), pages 60-74.
- Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Kourentzes, Nikolaos & Petropoulos, Fotios, 2015. "Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies," MPRA Paper 66362, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- George Athanasopoulos & Rob J Hyndman & Nikolaos Kourentzes & Fotios Petropoulos, 2015. "Forecasting with Temporal Hierarchies," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 16/15, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Bergsteinsson, Hjörleifur G. & Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Nystrup, Peter & Pálsson, Ólafur Pétur & Guericke, Daniela & Madsen, Henrik, 2021. "Heat load forecasting using adaptive temporal hierarchies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 292(C).
- Grimme, Christian & Lehmann, Robert & Noeller, Marvin, 2021.
"Forecasting imports with information from abroad,"
Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 109-117.
- Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Noeller, 2018. "Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad," CESifo Working Paper Series 7079, CESifo.
- Christian Grimme & Robert Lehmann & Marvin Noeller, 2019. "Forecasting Imports with Information from Abroad," ifo Working Paper Series 294, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
- Bergsteinsson, Hjörleifur G. & Sørensen, Mikkel Lindstrøm & Møller, Jan Kloppenborg & Madsen, Henrik, 2023. "Heat load forecasting using adaptive spatial hierarchies," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 350(C).
- Olivares, Kin G. & Meetei, O. Nganba & Ma, Ruijun & Reddy, Rohan & Cao, Mengfei & Dicker, Lee, 2024. "Probabilistic hierarchical forecasting with deep Poisson mixtures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 470-489.
- Fotios Petropoulos & Evangelos Spiliotis, 2021. "The Wisdom of the Data: Getting the Most Out of Univariate Time Series Forecasting," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(3), pages 1-20, June.
More about this item
Keywords
ierarchical Forecasting; Bayesian Forecast Reconciliation; Swiss Ex-ports; Optimal Forecast Combination;All these keywords.
JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
NEP fields
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:- NEP-ETS-2019-10-28 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2019-10-28 (Forecasting)
- NEP-INT-2019-10-28 (International Trade)
- NEP-MAC-2019-10-28 (Macroeconomics)
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:19-457. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/koethch.html .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.