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Stochastic Model and Rhythm-Adaptive Technologies of Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Processes with Cyclic Components

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  • Serhii Lupenko

    (Department of Informatics, Opole University of Technology, 45-758 Opole, Poland
    EPAM School of Digital Technologies, American University Kyiv, Poshtova Sq 3, 04070 Kyiv, Ukraine
    Institute of Telecommunications and Global Information Space, 02000 Kyiv, Ukraine)

  • Andrii Horkunenko

    (Department of Medical Physics of Diagnostic and Therapeutic Equipment, I. Horbachevsky Ternopil National Medical University, 46000 Ternopil, Ukraine)

Abstract

This article presents a mathematical model of cyclical economic processes, formulated as the sum of a deterministic polynomial function and a cyclic random process that simultaneously captures trend, stochasticity, cyclicity, and rhythm variability. Building on this stochastic framework, we propose rhythm-adaptive statistical techniques for estimating the probabilistic characteristics of the cyclic component; by adjusting to rhythm changes, these techniques improve estimation accuracy. We also introduce a forecasting procedure that constructs a system of rhythm-adaptive confidence intervals for future cycles. The effectiveness of the model and associated methods is demonstrated through a series of computational experiments using Federal Reserve Economic Data. Results show that the rhythm-adaptive forecasting approach achieves mean absolute errors less than half of those produced by a comparable non-adaptive method, underscoring its practical advantage for the analysis and prediction of cyclic economic phenomena.

Suggested Citation

  • Serhii Lupenko & Andrii Horkunenko, 2025. "Stochastic Model and Rhythm-Adaptive Technologies of Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Economic Processes with Cyclic Components," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-26, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jforec:v:7:y:2025:i:2:p:20-:d:1659342
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