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Forecasting regional growth in Germany: A panel approach using business survey data

  • Wenzel, Lars
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    This paper is a first attempt to construct quantitative forecasts for regional growth in Germany using business survey data (BSD) from the German chambers of commerce. A panel approach is used to model the growth rates of the Bundesländer from the year 2000 onwards. The proposed model does well in explaining regional growth and the coefficients on the BSD are relatively stable. Results suggest that an indicator that is 10 points higher reflects growth rates that are 0.3-0.4 percentage points higher, while a 10 point increase from the previous year suggests an increase in growth by 0.25 percentage points. Fixed effects are found to play a negligible role. The BSD provides additional information on regional growth and outperforms the benchmark without BSD by up to 14 per cent for the full time period. For the period from 2000 to 2007 this value is as much as 20 per cent. However, for the time period from 2008 onwards, BSD does not provide significant information content over the benchmark. This reflects several shortcomings of the BSD, which nonetheless appears a valuable source of information in forecasting regional growth.

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    File URL: http://econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/67943/1/733714900.pdf
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    Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 133.

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    Date of creation: 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:133
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    1. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German L�nder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    2. Robert Lehmann & Wolf-Dietmar Speich & Roman Straube & Gerit Vogt, 2010. "Funktioniert der ifo Konjunkturtest auch in wirtschaftlichen Krisenzeiten? : eine Analyse der Zusammenhänge zwischen ifo Geschäftsklima und amtlichen Konjunkturdaten für Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(03), pages 8-14, 06.
    3. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Stefan Kooths & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2008. "Konjunkturprognosen für Bundesländer setzen Verbesserung der Datensituation voraus," DIW Wochenbericht, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 75(24), pages 318-325.
    4. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil III: Konvergenz," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(15), pages 23-32, 08.
    5. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2007. "Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 47-55.
    6. Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2013. "Forecasting GDP at the regional level with many predictors," Discussion Papers in Economics 17104, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "VAR-Prognose-Pooling : ein Ansatz zur Verbesserung der Informationsgrundlage der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages 32-40, 04.
    8. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," CESifo Working Paper Series 3956, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2012. "Vierteljährliche VGR für Sachsen: Ergebnisse für das dritte Quartal 2011," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(01), pages 32-33, 02.
    10. Roberto Basile & Sergio de Nardis & Carmine Pappalardo, 2012. "Firm Heterogeneity and Regional Business Cycles Differentials," ERSA conference papers ersa12p84, European Regional Science Association.
    11. Stefan Arent & Michael Kloß & Robert Lehmann, 2011. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2011/2012: Inlandsnachfrage stützt den Aufschwung," ifo Dresden berichtet, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(04), pages 12-21, 08.
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