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A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting

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  • Robert Lehmann

    (ifo Institute Munich and CESifo)

Abstract

Accurate real-time macroeconomic data are essential for policy-making and economic nowcasting. The rising interest in analyses at the sub-national level cannot be served as such data are currently not available. In this paper, I introduce a real-time database for German regional economic accounts. The database contains real-time information for nine macroeconomic aggregates and the 16 German states. I conduct both a revision analysis and a nowcasting experiment for real gross domestic product. By pooling the states together, the first official estimates show no systematic revision errors. The pooling, however, suppresses the revision characteristics of single states. For half of the 16 German states I find that the first estimates are no optimal predictions, thus, leaving room for improvements in the future. The real-time nowcasts for real gross domestic product growth based on a mixed-frequency vector autoregression are very accurate and beat several benchmark models. More regional data would help to better inform the model, thereby increasing its nowcast performance even further.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann, 2024. "A real-time regional accounts database for Germany with applications to GDP revisions and nowcasting," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(2), pages 817-838, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:67:y:2024:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-024-02566-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-024-02566-3
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    Keywords

    Regional economic nowcasting; Revision analysis; Mixed-frequency vector autoregression; Real-time regional accounts; Regional gross domestic product; Regional economic growth; Regional economic data;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C82 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Macroeconomic Data; Data Access
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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