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Mit den ifo-Umfragen regionale Konjunktur verstehen

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Lehmann
  • Felix Leiss
  • Simon Litsche
  • Stefan Sauer
  • Michael Weber
  • Annette Weichselberger
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Mit seinen monatlichen Konjunkturumfragen stellt das ifo Institut wertvolle Indikatoren zur Wirtschaftsentwicklung bereit – nicht nur für Deutschland, sondern auch für einzelne Bundesländer. Gegenwärtig werden die verschiedenen Indikatoren des ifo Geschäftsklimas Deutschland auch für die Baden-Württemberg, Bayern, Nordrhein-Westfalen und Sachsen sowie Ostdeutschland insgesamt berechnet. Viele dieser Indikatoren entwickeln sich auf der regionalen Ebene kurzfristig anders als auf der nationalen Ebene. Nicht immer verbessert sich auch das regionale Geschäftsklima, wenn sich der entsprechende Bundesindikator aufhellt. Dies liegt an den unterschiedlichen regionalen Wirtschaftsstrukturen sowie regionalspezifischen konjunkturellen Signalen. Die Regionalauswertungen wären angesichts der aktuellen Teilnehmerzahlen auch für Hessen und Niedersachsen möglich. Für andere Bundesländer kämen regionenübergreifende Auswertungen in Betracht, bis sich deren Teilnehmerzahlen dauerhaft erhöhen.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Felix Leiss & Simon Litsche & Stefan Sauer & Michael Weber & Annette Weichselberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Mit den ifo-Umfragen regionale Konjunktur verstehen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(09), pages 45-49, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:09:p:45-49
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Vierteljährliche VGR für Sachsen: Ergebnisse für das dritte Quartal 2016," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 24(01), pages 33-34, February.
    2. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Vierteljährliche VGR für Sachsen: Ergebnisse für das erste Quartal 2017," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 24(04), pages 39-40, August.
    3. João C. Claudio & Katja Heinisch & Oliver Holtemöller, 2020. "Nowcasting East German GDP growth: a MIDAS approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 29-54, January.
    4. Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    5. repec:ces:ifodre:v:24:y:2017:i:6:p:35-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017. "Boosting and regional economic forecasting: the case of Germany," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 161-175, July.
    7. Henzel Steffen R. & Lehmann Robert & Wohlrabe Klaus, 2015. "Nowcasting Regional GDP: The Case of the Free State of Saxony," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(1), pages 71-98, April.
    8. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 34(1), pages 61-90, February.
    9. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Regional economic forecasting: state-of-the-art methodology and future challenges," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 3(4), pages 218-231.
    10. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Vierteljährliche VGR für Sachsen: Ergebnisse für das vierte Quartal 2016," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 24(03), pages 28-29, June.
    11. Christa Hainz & Artem Marjenko & Susanne Wildgruber, 2017. "Die Auswirkungen der Niedrigzinspolitik der EZB auf Unternehmen – Ergebnisse der Sonderfrage der ifo Konjunkturumfrage zu Negativzinsen auf Einlagen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 38-41, August.
    12. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 32-42, January.
    13. Michael Berlemann & Vera Jahn & Robert Lehmann, 2019. "Wie ist der Mittelstand in Deutschland verteilt? Eine Analyse mit Befragungsdaten," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 26(01), pages 23-28, February.
    14. Robert Lehmann & Joachim Ragnitz & Michael Weber, 2015. "Mindestlohn in Ostdeutschland: Firmen planen Preiserhöhungen und Personalabbau," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(01), pages 40-42, February.
    15. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Über die richtige Interpretation des ifo Geschäftsklimas als konjunktureller Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 42-46, August.
    16. Michael Weber, 2016. "Der flächendeckende Mindestlohn in Ost- und Westdeutschland: Erwartungen undWirklichkeit," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 23(03), pages 36-40, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    2. Balleer, Almut & Zorn, Peter, 2020. "The Micro-level Price Response to Monetary Policy," VfS Annual Conference 2020 (Virtual Conference): Gender Economics 224557, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Stefan Sauer, 2020. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen: Ein Überblick über die verfügbaren Zeitreihen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 73(02), pages 45-48, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunkturindikator; Konjunkturumfrage; Wirtschaftsentwicklung; Regionalentwicklung;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • R58 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Regional Government Analysis - - - Regional Development Planning and Policy
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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