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Quarterly Regional GDP Flash Estimates by Means of Benchmarking and Chain Linking

Author

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  • Cuevas Ángel

    (Macroeconomic Research Department, Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility, José Abascal n° 2, 2ª planta 28003, Madrid, Spain.)

  • Quilis Enrique M.

    (Macroeconomic Research Department, Independent Authority for Fiscal Responsibility, José Abascal n° 2, 2ª planta 28003, Madrid, Spain.)

  • Espasa Antoni

    (Department of Statistics and Instituto Flores de Lemus, Universidad, Carlos III de Madrid, Calle Madrid 126, 28903 Madrid, Spain.)

Abstract

In this article we propose a methodology for estimating the GDP of a country’s different regions, providing quarterly profiles for the annual official observed data. Thus the article offers a new instrument for short-term monitoring that allows the analysts to quantify the degree of synchronicity among regional business cycles. Technically, we combine time-series models with benchmarking methods to process short-term quarterly indicators and to estimate quarterly regional GDPs ensuring their temporal and transversal consistency with the National Accounts data. The methodology addresses the issue of nonadditivity, explicitly taking into account the transversal constraints imposed by the chain-linked volume indexes used by the National Accounts, and provides an efficient combination of structural as well as short-term information. The methodology is illustrated by an application to the Spanish economy, providing real-time quarterly GDP estimates, that is, with a minimum compilation delay with respect to the national quarterly GDP. The estimated quarterly data are used to assess the existence of cycles shared among the Spanish regions.

Suggested Citation

  • Cuevas Ángel & Quilis Enrique M. & Espasa Antoni, 2015. "Quarterly Regional GDP Flash Estimates by Means of Benchmarking and Chain Linking," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 627-647, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:offsta:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:627-647:n:6
    DOI: 10.1515/jos-2015-0038
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 176-197, March.
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    5. Espasa, Antoni & Senra, Eva, 2017. "22 Years of inflation assessment and forecasting experience at the bulletin of EU & US inflation and macroeconomic analysis," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 24678, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    6. Antoni Espasa & Eva Senra, 2017. "Twenty-Two Years of Inflation Assessment and Forecasting Experience at the Bulletin of EU & US Inflation and Macroeconomic Analysis," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-28, October.

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