IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/stanee/v72y2018i4p447-470.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Temporal disaggregation of economic time series: The view from the trenches

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique M. Quilis

Abstract

We analyze temporal disaggregation from the point of view of practitioners working as producers of official statistics or as nowcasters. According to this view, applicability, computational feasibility, robustness, and ease of communication are key aspects of temporal disaggregation in addition to statistical soundness and flexibility. We review the models used as a workhorse of this approach, exploring in detail their similitudes and differences. All the models and techniques are examined through the lens of a complete set of MATLAB functions that have been developed for their use in a production model. A real‐time database comprising the Great Recession period is used to evaluate the alternative models and attribute the revisions to changes in the benchmark, seasonal adjustment, and extrapolations.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique M. Quilis, 2018. "Temporal disaggregation of economic time series: The view from the trenches," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 447-470, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:72:y:2018:i:4:p:447-470
    DOI: 10.1111/stan.12150
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/stan.12150
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roberto S. Mariano & Yasutomo Murasawa, 2003. "A new coincident index of business cycles based on monthly and quarterly series," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(4), pages 427-443.
    2. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    3. Di Fonzo, Tommaso, 1990. "The Estimation of M Disaggregate Time Series When Contemporaneous and Temporal Aggregates Are Known," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 178-182, February.
    4. Baoline Chen, 2007. "An Empirical Comparison of Methods for Temporal Distribution and Interpolation at the National Accounts," BEA Papers 0077, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
    5. Frank Schorfheide & Dongho Song, 2015. "Real-Time Forecasting With a Mixed-Frequency VAR," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(3), pages 366-380, July.
    6. Litterman, Robert B, 1983. "A Random Walk, Markov Model for the Distribution of Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 1(2), pages 169-173, April.
    7. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Temporal disaggregation by state space methods: Dynamic regression methods revisited," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 357-372, November.
    8. Milton Friedman, 1962. "Introduction to "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series"," NBER Chapters, in: The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series, pages 1-3, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Tommaso Di Fonzo & Marco Marini, 2011. "Simultaneous and two‐step reconciliation of systems of time series: methodological and practical issues," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 60(2), pages 143-164, March.
    10. Baoline Chen, 2012. "A Balanced System of U.S. Industry Accounts and Distribution of the Aggregate Statistical Discrepancy by Industry," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 202-211, February.
    11. Milton Friedman, 1962. "The Interpolation of Time Series by Related Series," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number frie62-1, March.
    12. Víctor Guerrero & Fabio Nieto, 1999. "Temporal and contemporaneous disaggregation of multiple economic time series," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 8(2), pages 459-489, December.
    13. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    14. Sax, Christoph & Steiner, Peter, 2013. "Temporal Disaggregation of Time Series," MPRA Paper 53389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Marco Marini & Tommaso Di Fonzo, 2012. "On the Extrapolation with the Denton Proportional Benchmarking Method," IMF Working Papers 2012/169, International Monetary Fund.
    16. Manik L. Shrestha & Marco Marini, 2013. "Quarterly GDP Revisions in G-20 Countries; Evidence from the 2008 Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2013/060, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 1999. "Some Consequences of Temporal Aggregation in Empirical Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 17(1), pages 129-136, January.
    18. Rossi, Nicola, 1982. "A Note on the Estimation of Disaggregate Time Series When the Aggregate Is Known," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(4), pages 695-696, November.
    19. Marco Marini, 2016. "Nowcasting Annual National Accounts with Quarterly Indicators; An Assessment of Widely Used Benchmarking Methods," IMF Working Papers 2016/071, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Reinier Bikker & Jacco Daalmans & Nino Mushkudiani, 2013. "Benchmarking Large Accounting Frameworks: A Generalized Multivariate Model," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(4), pages 390-408, December.
    21. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 1985. "Econometrics and inconsistencies in the national accounts," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 8-16, January.
    22. Guay, Alain & Maurin, Alain, 2015. "Disaggregation methods based on MIDAS regression," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 123-129.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Wolfgang Polasek & Richard Sellner, 2008. "Spatial Chow-Lin Methods: Bayesian And Ml Forecast Comparisons," Working Paper series 38_08, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    2. Huang, Yu-Lieh, 2012. "Measuring business cycles: A temporal disaggregation model with regime switching," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 283-290.
    3. Abdullah Tahir & Jameel Ahmed & Waqas Ahmed, 2018. "Robust Quarterization of GDP and Determination of Business Cycle Dates for IGC Partner Countries," SBP Working Paper Series 97, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department.
    4. Tommaso Proietti, 2011. "Multivariate temporal disaggregation with cross-sectional constraints," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(7), pages 1455-1466, June.
    5. Bernardí Cabred & Jose Pavía, 1999. "EstimatingJ (>1) quarterly time series in fulfilling annual and quarterly constraints," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 5(3), pages 339-349, August.
    6. José Casals & Miguel Jerez & Sonia Sotoca, 2009. "Modelling and forecasting time series sampled at different frequencies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(4), pages 316-342.
    7. Víctor M. Guerrero & Francisco Corona, 2018. "Retropolating some relevant series of Mexico's System of National Accounts at constant prices: The case of Mexico City's GDP," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 495-519, November.
    8. Bernardí Cabrer-Borrás & Jose Manuel Pavía-Miralles, 2007. "On estimating contemporaneous quarterly regional GDP," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 155-170.
    9. repec:kap:iaecre:v:5:y:1999:i:3:p:339-349 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Baoline Chen & Tommaso Di Fonzo & Thomas Howells & Marco Marini, 2018. "The statistical reconciliation of time series of accounts between two benchmark revisions," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 533-552, November.
    11. Gary Koop & Stuart McIntyre & James Mitchell & Aubrey Poon, 2020. "Regional output growth in the United Kingdom: More timely and higher frequency estimates from 1970," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(2), pages 176-197, March.
    12. Massimo Gerli & Giovanni Marini, 2006. "Spatial and Temporal Time Series Conversion: A Consistent Estimator of the Error Variance-Covariance Matrix," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2005(3), pages 373-405.
    13. Peter Fuleky & Carl S. Bonham, 2013. "Forecasting with Mixed Frequency Samples: The Case of Common Trends," Working Papers 201316, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics.
    14. Valter Giacinto & Libero Monteforte & Andrea Filippone & Francesco Montaruli & Tiziano Ropele, 2021. "ITER: A Quarterly Indicator of Regional Economic Activity in Italy," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 7(1), pages 129-147, March.
    15. Umed Temursho, 2018. "Entropy‐based benchmarking methods," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 421-446, November.
    16. J. Isaac Miller, 2010. "Cointegrating regressions with messy regressors and an application to mixed‐frequency series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 255-277, July.
    17. Hassani, Hossein & Rua, António & Silva, Emmanuel Sirimal & Thomakos, Dimitrios, 2019. "Monthly forecasting of GDP with mixed-frequency multivariate singular spectrum analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1263-1272.
    18. Peter Fuleky & Carl Bonham, 2010. "Forecasting Based on Common Trends in Mixed Frequency Samples," Working Papers 2010-17R1, University of Hawaii Economic Research Organization, University of Hawaii at Manoa, revised Jul 2013.
    19. Cecilia Frale, "undated". "Do Surveys Help in Macroeconomic Variables Disaggregation and Estimation?," Working Papers wp2008-2, Department of the Treasury, Ministry of the Economy and of Finance.
    20. Schumacher, Christian & Breitung, Jörg, 2008. "Real-time forecasting of German GDP based on a large factor model with monthly and quarterly data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 386-398.
    21. Müller-Kademann Christian, 2015. "Internal Validation of Temporal Disaggregation: A Cloud Chamber Approach," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 235(3), pages 298-319, June.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:stanee:v:72:y:2018:i:4:p:447-470. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley Content Delivery). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0039-0402 .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.