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An application of the Tramo Seats automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment

  • Agustín Maravall


    (Banco de España)

The ARIMA model based methodology of programs TRAMO and SEATS for seasonal adjustment and trend cycle estimation was applied to the exports, imports, and balance of trade Japanese series in Maravall (2002). The programs were used in an automatic mode, and the results analyzed. The present paper contains an extension of the work. First, some improvements in the automatic modelling procedure are illustrated, and the models for the seasonally adjusted series and its trend cycle component are discussed (in particular, their order of integration). It is further shown how the SEATS output can be of help in model selection. Finally, the important problem of the choice between direct and indirect adjustment of an aggregate is addressed. It is concluded that, because aggregation has a strong effect on the spectral shape of the series, and because seasonal adjustment is a non linear transformation of the original series, direct adjustment is preferable, even at the cost of destroying identities between the original series.

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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0524.

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Length: 34 pages
Date of creation: Aug 2005
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Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0524
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  1. Buisan, Ana & Caballero, Juan C. & Campa, Jose M. & Jimenez, Noelia, 2004. "La importancia de la histéresis en las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países de la UEM," IESE Research Papers D/561, IESE Business School.
  2. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Ortega, Eva, 2004. "Similarities and Convergence in G7 Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4534, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  3. Dolado, Juan J. & Jansen, Marcel & Jimeno, Juan F, 2005. "Dual Employment Protection Legislation: A Framework for Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 5033, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  4. Javier Andres & J. David López-Salido & Edward Nelson, 2004. "Tobin's imperfect asset substitution in optimizing general equilibrium," Working Papers 2004-003, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  5. William R. Bell & Donald E. K. Martin, 2004. "Computation of asymmetric signal extraction filters and mean squared error for ARIMA component models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 603-623, 07.
  6. Enrique Alberola & Luis Molina & Daniel Navia, 2005. "Say You Fix, Enjoy And Relax The Deleterious Effect Of Peg Announcements On Fiscal Discipline," International Finance 0509001, EconWPA.
  7. Robert-Paul Berben & Alberto Locarno & Julian Morgan & Javier Vallés, 2005. "Cross-country differences in monetary policy transmission," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0502, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Agustín Maravall & Cristophe Planas, 1996. "Estimation Error and the Specification of Unobserved Component Models," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9608, Banco de Espa�a.
  9. Gomez, Victor & Maravall, Agustin & Pena, Daniel, 1998. "Missing observations in ARIMA models: Skipping approach versus additive outlier approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 341-363, November.
  10. Ghysels, Eric, 1997. "Seasonal Adjustment and Other Data Transformations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(4), pages 410-18, October.
  11. Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9609, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez-Quirós, Gabriel, 2005. "Jump-and-Rest Effects of US Business Cycles," CEPR Discussion Papers 4975, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  13. Ghysels,Eric & Osborn,Denise R., 2001. "The Econometric Analysis of Seasonal Time Series," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521565882.
  14. Andres, Javier & Lopez-Salido, J. David & Nelson, Edward, 2005. "Sticky-price models and the natural rate hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(5), pages 1025-1053, July.
  15. Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 9808, Banco de Espa�a.
  16. Hillmer, Steven C, 1985. "Measures of Variability for Model-based Seasonal Adjustment Procedures," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(1), pages 60-68, January.
  17. Maravall, Agustin, 1987. "Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation of the Noise in Unobserved Component Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 115-20, January.
  18. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal Adjustment When Both Deterministic and Stochastic Seasonality Are Present," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 242-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Bell, William R & Hillmer, Steven C, 1984. "Issues Involved with the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(4), pages 291-320, October.
  20. D. S. G. Pollock, 2002. "A review of TSW: the Windows version of the TRAMO-SEATS program," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(3), pages 291-299.
  21. David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present," Special Studies Papers 107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  22. John Geweke, 1979. "The Temporal and Sectoral Aggregation of Seasonally Adjusted Time Series," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 411-432 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Pierce, David A., 1980. "Data revisions with moving average seasonal adjustment procedures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 95-114, September.
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