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La importancia de la histéresis en las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países de la UEM

  • Ana Buisán

    (Banco de España)

  • Juan Carlos Caballero

    (Banco de España)

  • José Manuel Campa

    (Banco de España)

  • Noelia Jiménez

    (Banco de España)

En este trabajo se pretende comprobar la posible existencia de histéresis en la oferta de exportaciones de manufacturas en algunos países de la zona del euro, es decir, se analiza si los movimientos transitorios del tipo de cambio tienen un impacto permanente sobre las exportaciones. La presencia de costes irrecuperables en la entrada y salida del mercado a los que se enfrentan los productores puede justificar la existencia de histéresis en el comercio, ya que las empresas exportadoras tomarían en consideración el tipo de cambio futuro como una variable adicional a la hora de decidir si se entra o no en el mercado, afectando de esta forma al volumen de exportación agregado. Así, el trabajo presenta una estimación de un modelo de oferta y demanda de exportaciones de manufacturas para la mayoría de los países de la zona euro, donde la oferta toma en cuenta la evolución futura del tipo de cambio a partir de la estimación secuencial de sus dos primeros momentos. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, el tipo de cambio esperado no es, en la mayor parte de los casos, una variable explicativa de la evolución de la oferta de exportaciones. De este modo, en contra de la evidencia disponible con datos de empresas, el análisis macroeconómico efectuado no detecta efectos de histéresis significativos en la oferta de exportaciones.

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Article provided by Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos in its journal Monetaria.

Volume (Year): XXVII (2004)
Issue (Month): 2 (abril-junio)
Pages: 169-222

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Handle: RePEc:cml:moneta:v:xxvii:y:2004:i:2:p:169-222
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