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La importancia de la histéresis en las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países de la UEM

  • Buisan, Ana

    (Banco de España)

  • Caballero, Juan C.

    (Banco de España)

  • Campa, Jose M.

    ()

    (IESE Business School)

  • Jimenez, Noelia

    (Banco de España)

En este trabajo se pretende comprobar la posible existencia de histéresis en la oferta de exportaciones de manufacturas en algunos países de la zona del euro, es decir, se analiza si los movimientos transitorios del tipo de cambio tienen un impacto permanente sobre las exportaciones. La presencia de costes irrecuperables en la entrada y salida del mercado a los que se enfrentan los productores puede justificar la existencia de histéresis en el comercio, ya que las empresas exportadoras tomarían en consideración el tipo de cambio futuro como una variable adicional a la hora de decidir si se entra o no en el mercado, afectando de esta forma al volumen de exportación agregado. Así, el trabajo presenta una estimación de un modelo de oferta y demanda de exportaciones de manufacturas para la mayoría de los países de la zona euro, donde la oferta toma en cuenta la evolución futura del tipo de cambio a partir de la estimación secuencial de sus dos primeros momentos. De acuerdo con los resultados obtenidos, el tipo de cambio esperado no es, en la mayor parte de los casos, una variable explicativa de la evolución de la oferta de exportaciones. De este modo, en contra de la evidencia disponible con datos de empresas, el análisis macroeconómico efectuado no detecta efectos de histéresis significativos en la oferta de exportaciones.

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Paper provided by IESE Business School in its series IESE Research Papers with number D/561.

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Length: 55 pages
Date of creation: 15 Jun 2004
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ebg:iesewp:d-0561
Contact details of provider: Postal: IESE Business School, Av Pearson 21, 08034 Barcelona, SPAIN
Web page: http://www.iese.edu/

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  1. Robert J. Barro, 1988. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," NBER Working Papers 2588, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Nielsen, Soren Feodor, 2000. "On simulated EM algorithms," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 267-292, June.
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  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
  5. Martin Feldstein, 1996. "How Big Should Government Be?," NBER Working Papers 5868, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Carlos Estaban Posada & Wilman Gómez, 2002. "Crecimiento Económico Y Gasto Público Un Modelo Para El Caso Colombiano," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE.
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  8. Carlos Esteban Posada P. & Luis Eduardo Arango, 2000. "Podremos Sostener La Deuda Pública?," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003330, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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