IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/feddwp/1608.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data

Author

Listed:
  • Keith R. Phillips
  • Jack Wang

Abstract

Rudebush et al (2015a, b) and the Bureau of Economic Analysis find the presence of residual seasonality in the official estimates of U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP). Directly seasonally adjusting official seasonally adjusted GDP, which we refer to as double seasonal adjustment, could revise the first quarter growth in the past several years upward by an average of about 1.5 percentage points. The presence of residual seasonality can significantly distort current analysis of national and regional economies. In this paper we look more closely at the U.S. GDP data and study the quality of the seasonal adjustment when it is applied to data that has already been indirectly seasonally adjusted. We find that double seasonal adjustment can lead to estimates that are of moderate quality. While the optimal method would be to directly seasonally adjust the aggregate not seasonally adjusted data, if this is not possible, double seasonally adjusted data would likely lead to better estimates.

Suggested Citation

  • Keith R. Phillips & Jack Wang, 2016. "Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data," Working Papers 1608, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1608
    DOI: 10.24149/wp1608
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.dallasfed.org/-/media/documents/research/papers/2016/wp1608.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.24149/wp1608?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    2. Tim Mahedy & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel J. Wilson, 2015. "The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    2. McElroy Tucker, 2021. "A Diagnostic for Seasonality Based Upon Polynomial Roots of ARMA Models," Journal of Official Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 37(2), pages 367-394, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tucker McElroy, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment subject to accounting constraints," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 574-589, November.
    2. Maravall, A. & del Rio, A., 2007. "Temporal aggregation, systematic sampling, and the Hodrick-Prescott filter," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 975-998, October.
    3. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    4. Fornaro, Paolo & Luomaranta, Henri, 2015. "Small Versus Large Firms Employment Patterns in Finland: a Comparison," MPRA Paper 66979, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Carlos A. Medel, 2018. "A Comparison Between Direct and Indirect Seasonal Adjustment of the Chilean GDP 1986–2009 with X-12-ARIMA," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 47-87, April.
    6. Daniel Thorburn & Can Tongur, 2014. "Assessing direct and indirect seasonal decomposition in state space," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(9), pages 2075-2091, September.
    7. Thornton, Michael A., 2013. "Removing seasonality under a changing regime: Filtering new car sales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 4-14.
    8. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Reitz, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Erholung der Weltkonjunktur vorübergehend gebremst [World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Bujosa, Marcos & Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Young, Peter C., 2007. "Linear dynamic harmonic regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 999-1024, October.
    10. John C. Williams, 2015. "The recovery’s final frontier?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    11. Hayat, Aziz & Bhatti, M. Ishaq, 2013. "Masking of volatility by seasonal adjustment methods," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 676-688.
    12. Michał Gradzewicz, 2019. "How do savings of different sectors respond to interest rate change?," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 11(1), pages 1-22, March.
    13. Schmidt, Torsten & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weiterhin schwaches Tempo der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(3), pages 5-37.
    14. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    15. Lisa Sella & Gianna Vivaldo & Andreas Groth & Michael Ghil, 2016. "Economic Cycles and Their Synchronization: A Comparison of Cyclic Modes in Three European Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 25-48, September.
    16. John C. Williams, 2015. "Data is the new black: monetary policy by the numbers," Speech 140, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Alain Hecq & Sean Telg & Lenard Lieb, 2017. "Do Seasonal Adjustments Induce Noncausal Dynamics in Inflation Rates?," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(4), pages 1-22, October.
    18. V. Ball & Carlos San-Juan-Mesonada & Camilo Ulloa, 2014. "State productivity growth in agriculture: catching-up and the business cycle," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 327-338, December.
    19. Ball, V. Eldon & San Juan, Carlos & Ulloa, Camilo A., 2011. "Agricultural productivity in the United States: catching-up and the business cycle," UC3M Working papers. Economics we1116, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    20. Aguilera, Ana M. & Escabias, Manuel & Valderrama, Mariano J., 2008. "Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3187-3197, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:feddwp:1608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Amy Chapman (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbdaus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.