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The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth

Author

Listed:
  • Tim Mahedy
  • Glenn D. Rudebusch
  • Daniel J. Wilson

Abstract

The official estimate of real GDP growth for the first three months of 2015 was shockingly weak. However, such estimates in the past appear to have understated first-quarter growth fairly consistently, even though they are adjusted to try to account for seasonal patterns. Applying a second round of seasonal adjustment corrects this residual seasonality. After this correction, aggregate output grew much faster in the first quarter than reported.

Suggested Citation

  • Tim Mahedy & Glenn D. Rudebusch & Daniel J. Wilson, 2015. "The puzzle of weak first-quarter GDP growth," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfel:00056
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. John C. Williams, 2015. "The recovery’s final frontier?," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    2. Matteo Barigozzi & Matteo Luciani, 2017. "Common Factors, Trends, and Cycles in Large Datasets," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-111, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Schmidt, Torsten & Döhrn, Roland & Grozea-Helmenstein, Daniela & an de Meulen, Philipp & Micheli, Martin & Rujin, Svetlana & Zwick, Lina, 2015. "Die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung im Ausland: Weiterhin schwaches Tempo der weltwirtschaftlichen Expansion," RWI Konjunkturberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, vol. 66(3), pages 5-37.
    4. Brandyn Bok & Daniele Caratelli & Domenico Giannone & Argia M. Sbordone & Andrea Tambalotti, 2018. "Macroeconomic Nowcasting and Forecasting with Big Data," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 615-643, August.
    5. Keith R. Phillips & Jack Wang, 2016. "Residual seasonality in U.S. GDP data," Working Papers 1608, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. John C. Williams, 2015. "Data is the new black: monetary policy by the numbers," Speech 140, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    7. Tucker McElroy, 2018. "Seasonal adjustment subject to accounting constraints," Statistica Neerlandica, Netherlands Society for Statistics and Operations Research, vol. 72(4), pages 574-589, November.
    8. Fiedler, Salomon & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Hauber, Philipp & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Reitz, Stefan & Schwarzmüller, Tim & Wolters, Maik H., 2015. "Weltkonjunktur im Sommer 2015 - Erholung der Weltkonjunktur vorübergehend gebremst [World Economy Summer 2015 - Faltering recovery of the world economy]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 7, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).

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