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Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model

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  • Aguilera, Ana M.
  • Escabias, Manuel
  • Valderrama, Mariano J.

Abstract

In order to forecast time evolution of a binary response variable from a related continuous time series a functional logit model is proposed. The estimation of this model from discrete time observations of the predictor is solved by using functional principal component analysis and ARIMA modelling of the associated discrete time series of principal components. The proposed model is applied to forecast the risk of drought from El Niño phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilera, Ana M. & Escabias, Manuel & Valderrama, Mariano J., 2008. "Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3187-3197, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3187-3197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mariano J. Valderrama & Francisco A. Ocaña & Ana M. Aguilera & Francisco M. Ocaña-Peinado, 2010. "Forecasting Pollen Concentration by a Two-Step Functional Model," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 578-585, June.
    2. Germán Aneiros-Pérez & Philippe Vieu, 2013. "Testing linearity in semi-parametric functional data analysis," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 413-434, April.
    3. van der Linde, Angelika, 2008. "Variational Bayesian functional PCA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 517-533, December.

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