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Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model

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  • Aguilera, Ana M.
  • Escabias, Manuel
  • Valderrama, Mariano J.

Abstract

In order to forecast time evolution of a binary response variable from a related continuous time series a functional logit model is proposed. The estimation of this model from discrete time observations of the predictor is solved by using functional principal component analysis and ARIMA modelling of the associated discrete time series of principal components. The proposed model is applied to forecast the risk of drought from El Niño phenomenon.

Suggested Citation

  • Aguilera, Ana M. & Escabias, Manuel & Valderrama, Mariano J., 2008. "Forecasting binary longitudinal data by a functional PC-ARIMA model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 3187-3197, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:52:y:2008:i:6:p:3187-3197
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Maravall, Agustin, 2006. "An application of the TRAMO-SEATS automatic procedure; direct versus indirect adjustment," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2167-2190, May.
    2. Bouzas, P.R. & Valderrama, M.J. & Aguilera, A.M. & Ruiz-Fuentes, N., 2006. "Modelling the mean of a doubly stochastic Poisson process by functional data analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2655-2667, June.
    3. Ombao, Hernando & Ringo Ho, Moon-ho, 2006. "Time-dependent frequency domain principal components analysis of multichannel non-stationary signals," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(9), pages 2339-2360, May.
    4. Ana Aguilera & Francisco Ocaña & Mariano Valderrama, 1999. "Forecasting with unequally spaced data by a functional principal component approach," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 8(1), pages 233-253, June.
    5. Manteiga, Wenceslao Gonzalez & Vieu, Philippe, 2007. "Statistics for Functional Data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4788-4792, June.
    6. Heij, Christiaan & Groenen, Patrick J.F. & van Dijk, Dick, 2007. "Forecast comparison of principal component regression and principal covariate regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 3612-3625, April.
    7. Escabias, M. & Aguilera, A.M. & Valderrama, M.J., 2007. "Functional PLS logit regression model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4891-4902, June.
    8. Preda, C. & Saporta, G., 2005. "Clusterwise PLS regression on a stochastic process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 99-108, April.
    9. Ferraty, F. & Vieu, P., 2003. "Curves discrimination: a nonparametric functional approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 161-173, October.
    10. Francisco Ocaña & Ana Aguilera & Manuel Escabias, 2007. "Computational considerations in functional principal component analysis," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 449-465, September.
    11. Preda, C. & Saporta, G., 2005. "PLS regression on a stochastic process," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 149-158, January.
    12. Aguilera, Ana M. & Escabias, Manuel & Valderrama, Mariano J., 2006. "Using principal components for estimating logistic regression with high-dimensional multicollinear data," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1905-1924, April.
    13. Hyndman, Rob J. & Shahid Ullah, Md., 2007. "Robust forecasting of mortality and fertility rates: A functional data approach," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 51(10), pages 4942-4956, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. van der Linde, Angelika, 2008. "Variational Bayesian functional PCA," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 517-533, December.
    2. Mariano J. Valderrama & Francisco A. Ocaña & Ana M. Aguilera & Francisco M. Ocaña-Peinado, 2010. "Forecasting Pollen Concentration by a Two-Step Functional Model," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(2), pages 578-585, June.
    3. Germán Aneiros-Pérez & Philippe Vieu, 2013. "Testing linearity in semi-parametric functional data analysis," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 413-434, April.

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