An Application of TRAMO-SEATS: Model Selection and Out-of-Sample Performance: the Swiss CPI Series
This paper applies the programs TRAMO and SEATS to seasonal adjustment of the monthly Consumer Price Index Swiss series. It is shown how the results of the purely automatic procedure can be improved with two simple modifications: one that emerges from the TRAMO-SEATS diagnostics, and another that uses "a-priori" information. In particular, the SEATS output is used to select a model among the ones that are equally compatible with the sample.
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- Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Seasonal Adjustment and Signal Extraction in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9809, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal Adjustment When Both Deterministic and Stochastic Seasonality Are Present," NBER Chapters, in: Seasonal Analysis of Economic Time Series, pages 242-280 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Agustín Maravall, 1996. "Unobserved Components in Economic Time Series," Working Papers 9609, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- David A. Pierce, 1978. "Seasonal adjustment when both deterministic and stochastic seasonality are present," Special Studies Papers 107, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Víctor Gómez & Agustín Maravall, 1998. "Automatic Modeling Methods for Univariate Series," Working Papers 9808, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
- Maravall, Agustin, 1987. "Minimum Mean Squared Error Estimation of the Noise in Unobserved Component Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 115-120, January.
- Findley, David F, et al, 1998. "New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment Program," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(2), pages 127-152, April.
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