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Ein Vergleich der Zeitreihen der Erzeugerpreise und der Preiserwartungen im ifo Konjunkturtest für das verarbeitende Gewerbe

Author

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  • Klaus Abberger

Abstract

In seinem monatlichen Konjunkturtest fragt das ifo Institut die teilnehmenden Unternehmen nach ihren voraussichtlichen inländischen Verkaufspreisänderungen in den nächsten drei Monaten. Diese Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests zu den Preiserwartungen der befragten Unternehmer bilden einen geeigneten Frühindikator für die Erzeugerpreise im verarbeitenden Gewerbe, denn die ifo-Zeitreihe enthält einen ähnlichen konjunkturellen Verlauf wie die Erzeugerpreisreihe. Die Konjunkturkomponente der Befragungsergebnisse besitzt einen durchschnittlichen Vorlauf von etwa vier Monaten vor den Erzeugerpreisen und zeigt die Wendepunkte in der Regel vorzeitig an.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger, 2005. "Ein Vergleich der Zeitreihen der Erzeugerpreise und der Preiserwartungen im ifo Konjunkturtest für das verarbeitende Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(14), pages 50-51, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:14:p:50-51
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    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/ifosd_2005_14_5.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
    2. Georg Goldrian, 2005. "Eine Anmerkung zur Aussagekraft von Wachstumsraten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(13), pages 47-48, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Verarbeitendes Gewerbe; Preis; Zeitreihenanalyse; Konjunkturumfage; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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