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Ein Vergleich der Zeitreihen der Erzeugerpreise und der Preiserwartungen im ifo Konjunkturtest für das verarbeitende Gewerbe

Listed author(s):
  • Klaus Abberger

In seinem monatlichen Konjunkturtest fragt das ifo Institut die teilnehmenden Unternehmen nach ihren voraussichtlichen inländischen Verkaufspreisänderungen in den nächsten drei Monaten. Diese Ergebnisse des ifo Konjunkturtests zu den Preiserwartungen der befragten Unternehmer bilden einen geeigneten Frühindikator für die Erzeugerpreise im verarbeitenden Gewerbe, denn die ifo-Zeitreihe enthält einen ähnlichen konjunkturellen Verlauf wie die Erzeugerpreisreihe. Die Konjunkturkomponente der Befragungsergebnisse besitzt einen durchschnittlichen Vorlauf von etwa vier Monaten vor den Erzeugerpreisen und zeigt die Wendepunkte in der Regel vorzeitig an.

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Article provided by ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 58 (2005)
Issue (Month): 14 (July)
Pages: 50-51

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:58:y:2005:i:14:p:50-51
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  1. Michael ARTIS & Massimiliano MARCELLINO & Tommaso PROIETTI, 2002. "Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle," Economics Working Papers ECO2002/24, European University Institute.
  2. Georg Goldrian, 2005. "Eine Anmerkung zur Aussagekraft von Wachstumsraten," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(13), pages 47-48, July.
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