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Asymmetric Cycles

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  • Boyan Jovanovic

Abstract

I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment costs. Rapid adjustments may cause productivity slowdowns. These slowdowns last longer when retooling is costly. The model explains why growth-rate disasters are more likely than miracles, and why volatility of growth relates negatively to growth over time. I estimate the model, and the estimates have surprising implications. Firms seem to abandon technologies long before they are perfected current-practice TFP is 17 percent below best-practice.

Suggested Citation

  • Boyan Jovanovic, 2004. "Asymmetric Cycles," NBER Working Papers 10573, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:10573
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    Cited by:

    1. Kose, M. Ayhan & Prasad, Eswar S. & Terrones, Marco E., 2006. "How do trade and financial integration affect the relationship between growth and volatility?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 176-202, June.
    2. Jovanovic, Boyan, 2009. "Investment options and the business cycle," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(6), pages 2247-2265, November.
    3. Gadi Barlevy, 2004. "The Cost of Business Cycles and the Benefits of Stabilization: A Survey," NBER Working Papers 10926, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Fabio Méndez & Facundo Sepúlveda, 2012. "The Cyclicality of Skill Acquisition: Evidence from Panel Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(3), pages 128-152, July.
    5. Imbs, Jean, 2007. "Growth and volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1848-1862, October.
    6. Antonella Tutino, 2013. "Rationally inattentive consumption choices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 16(3), pages 421-439, July.
    7. de Blas Beatriz, 2009. "Can Financial Frictions Help Explain the Performance of the U.S. Fed?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, June.
    8. Olaf, POSCH & Klaus, WAELDE, 2005. "Natural volatility, welfare and taxation," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2005009, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    9. Romain Rancière & Aaron Tornell & Frank Westermann, 2002. "Crises and growth: A re-evaluation," Economics Working Papers 852, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Sep 2003.
    10. Almeida, Pedro Cameira de & Fuinhas, José Alberto & Marques, António Cardoso, 2011. "A assimetria dos ciclos económicos: Evidência internacional usando o teste triples
      [The asymmetry of business cycles: International evidence using triples test]
      ," MPRA Paper 35208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Geert Bekaert & Alexander Popov, 2012. "On the Link Between the Volatility and Skewness of Growth," NBER Working Papers 18556, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Bassanini, Andrea & Brunello, Giorgio, 2007. "Barriers to Entry, Deregulation and Workplace Training," IZA Discussion Papers 2746, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    13. Arratibel, Olga & Furceri, Davide & Martin, Reiner & Zdzienicka, Aleksandra, 2011. "The effect of nominal exchange rate volatility on real macroeconomic performance in the CEE countries," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 261-277, June.
    14. McKay, Alisdair & Reis, Ricardo, 2008. "The brevity and violence of contractions and expansions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 738-751, May.
    15. repec:kap:empiri:v:44:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s10663-016-9336-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Cheremukhin, Anton & Tutino, Antonella, 2016. "Information rigidities and asymmetric business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 142-158.
    17. Kiminori Matsuyama & Iryna Sushko & Laura Gardini, 2014. "Globalization and Synchronization of Innovation Cycles," Discussion Papers 1527, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Dec 2014.
    18. Magud, Nicolas E., 2008. "On asymmetric business cycles and the effectiveness of counter-cyclical fiscal policies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 885-905, September.
    19. Aaron Tornell, 2003. "Crises and Growth: A Re-evaluation (September 2003)," UCLA Economics Online Papers 264, UCLA Department of Economics.
    20. Hur, Joonyoung & Kim, Insu, 2017. "Inattentive agents and disagreement about economic activity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 175-190.
    21. Atsushi Ohyama & Serguey Braguinsky & Kevin M. Murphy, 2004. "Entrepreneurial Ability and Market Selection in an Infant Industry: Evidence from the Japanese Cotton Spinning Industry," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 7(2), pages 354-381, April.
    22. Gadi Barlevy, 2005. "The cost of business cycles and the benefits of stabilization," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q I, pages 32-49.
    23. Domenico Ferraro, 2014. "The Asymmetric Cyclical Behavior of the U.S. Labor Market," 2014 Meeting Papers 1104, Society for Economic Dynamics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles

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