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Risk of Rare Disasters, Euler Equation Errors and the Performance of the C-CAPM

  • Olaf Posch

    ()

    (Aarhus University and CREATES)

  • Andreas Schrimpf

    ()

    (Bank for International Settlements and CREATES)

This paper shows that the consumption-based asset pricing model (C-CAPM) with low-probability disaster risk rationalizes large pricing errors, i.e. Euler equation errors. This result is remarkable, since Lettau and Ludvigson (2009) show that leading asset pricing models cannot explain sizeable pricing errors in the C-CAPM. We also show (analytically and in a Monte Carlo study) that implausible estimates of risk aversion and time preference are not puzzling in this framework and emerge as a result of rational pricing errors. While this bias essentially removes the pricing error in the traditional endowment economy, a production economy with stochastically changing investment opportunities generates large and persistent empirical pricing errors.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.econ.au.dk/creates/rp/12/rp12_32.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus in its series CREATES Research Papers with number 2012-32.

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Length: 45
Date of creation: 11 Jul 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:aah:create:2012-32
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.au.dk/afn/

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  1. Rietz, Thomas A., 1988. "The equity risk premium a solution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 117-131, July.
  2. Mehra, Rajnish & Prescott, Edward C., 1985. "The equity premium: A puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 145-161, March.
  3. Ravi Bansal & Amir Yaron, 2000. "Risks for the Long Run: A Potential Resolution of Asset Pricing Puzzles," NBER Working Papers 8059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Cochrane, John H. & Campbell, John, 1999. "By Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Scholarly Articles 3119444, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Martin Lettau & Sydney Ludvigson, 1999. "Resurrecting the (C)CAPM: a cross-sectional test when risk premia are time-varying," Staff Reports 93, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  6. Mark Rubinstein, 1976. "The Valuation of Uncertain Income Streams and the Pricing of Options," Bell Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 7(2), pages 407-425, Autumn.
  7. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
  8. Christian Julliard & Anisha Ghosh, 2008. "Can rare events explain the equity premium puzzle?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 4808, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  9. Barro, Robert, 2006. "Rare Disasters and Asset Markets in the Twentieth Century," Scholarly Articles 3208215, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  10. Xavier Gabaix, 2008. "Variable Rare Disasters: A Tractable Theory of Ten Puzzles in Macro-finance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 64-67, May.
  11. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
  12. Posch, Olaf, 2009. "Structural estimation of jump-diffusion processes in macroeconomics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 153(2), pages 196-210, December.
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