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Bankruptcies, unemployment and reallocation from Covid-19

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  • Ryan Niladri Banerjee
  • Enisse Kharroubi
  • Ulf Lewrick

Abstract

The expected wave of business failures in the Covid-19 recession has yet to materialise, due in part to policy support, but also reflecting the inherent lag between declines in GDP and insolvencies. Bankruptcies weigh heavily on labour markets. Unemployment typically increases three times more if a fall in GDP is accompanied by a similar-sized increase in bankruptcies. Concentration of bankruptcies in those sectors hit especially hard by Covid-19 could exert a significant drag on the labour market. The natural renewal process where young, dynamic firms displace those who exited takes two to three years, leaving a protracted period of lacklustre activity. This underscores the need to reallocate resources quickly and efficiently to drive growth in the post-pandemic world.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Enisse Kharroubi & Ulf Lewrick, 2020. "Bankruptcies, unemployment and reallocation from Covid-19," BIS Bulletins 31, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisblt:31
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Boris Hofmann, 2018. "The rise of zombie firms: causes and consequences," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, September.
    2. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    3. Claudio Borio & Bent Vale & Goetz von Peter, 2010. "Resolving the financial crisis: are we heeding the lessons from the Nordics?," Working Paper 2010/17, Norges Bank.
    4. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Giulio Cornelli & Egon Zakrajšek, 2020. "The outlook for business bankruptcies," BIS Bulletins 30, Bank for International Settlements.
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    Cited by:

    1. Apergis, Nicholas & Danuletiu, Dan & Xu, Bing, 2022. "CDS spreads and COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of COVID‐19: A mid‐term review," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 439-458, October.
    3. Tijana Matejić & Snežana Knežević & Vesna Bogojević Arsić & Tijana Obradović & Stefan Milojević & Miljan Adamović & Aleksandra Mitrović & Marko Milašinović & Dragoljub Simonović & Goran Milošević & Ma, 2022. "Assessing the Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on Hotel Industry Bankruptcy Risk through Novel Forecasting Models," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(8), pages 1-44, April.
    4. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Enisse Kharroubi, 2020. "The financial vulnerabilities driving firms to the exit," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.

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