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How much stress could Covid put on corporate credit? Evidence using sectoral data

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  • Benoit Mojon
  • Daniel Rees
  • Christian Schmieder

Abstract

The economic downturn prompted by the Covid pandemic was historically deep and highly divergent at a sectoral level. We project corporate credit losses for the G7 economies, China and Australia until 2022 and find that they could be substantial for the sectors most affected by the pandemic. Yet, because those sectors account for a relatively small share of total corporate borrowing, aggregate corporate credit loss rates (ie losses in relation to the stock of corporate debt) could fall short of those sustained during the Great Financial Crisis of 2007–09.

Suggested Citation

  • Benoit Mojon & Daniel Rees & Christian Schmieder, 2021. "How much stress could Covid put on corporate credit? Evidence using sectoral data," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:bisqtr:2103e
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robin Greenwood & Benjamin Iverson & David Thesmar, 2020. "Sizing up Corporate Restructuring in the COVID Crisis," NBER Working Papers 28104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christian Dembiermont & Mathias Drehmann & Siriporn Muksakunratana, 2013. "How much does the private sector really borrow - a new database for total credit to the private non-financial sector," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Veronica Guerrieri & Guido Lorenzoni & Ludwig Straub & Iván Werning, 2022. "Macroeconomic Implications of COVID-19: Can Negative Supply Shocks Cause Demand Shortages?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1437-1474, May.
    4. Viviana Alfonso C & Codruta Boar & Jon Frost & Leonardo Gambacorta & Jing Liu, 2021. "E-commerce in the pandemic and beyond," BIS Bulletins 36, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. David Baqaee & Emmanuel Farhi, 2022. "Supply and Demand in Disaggregated Keynesian Economies with an Application to the COVID-19 Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(5), pages 1397-1436, May.
    6. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Giulio Cornelli & Egon Zakrajšek, 2020. "The outlook for business bankruptcies," BIS Bulletins 30, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Emanuel Kohlscheen & Benoit Mojon & Daniel Rees, 2020. "The macroeconomic spillover effects of the pandemic on the global economy," BIS Bulletins 4, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Mr. Daniel C Hardy & Mr. Christian Schmieder, 2013. "Rules of Thumb for Bank Solvency Stress Testing," IMF Working Papers 2013/232, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Sanchez Serrano, Antonio, 2022. "From Lost Turnover to Nonperforming Loans: The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Economy and on the Financial System," Journal of Financial Crises, Yale Program on Financial Stability (YPFS), vol. 4(3), pages 99-164, April.
    2. Juselius, Mikael & Tarashev, Nikola A., 2021. "Could corporate credit losses turn out higher than expected?," BoF Economics Review 3/2021, Bank of Finland.
    3. Salha Ben Salem & Moez Labidi, 2024. "Financial friction and optimal monetary policy: analysis of DSGE model with financial friction and price sticky," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(7), pages 1-24, July.
    4. Alexandra Horobet & Stefania Cristina Curea & Alexandra Smedoiu Popoviciu & Cosmin-Alin Botoroga & Lucian Belascu & Dan Gabriel Dumitrescu, 2021. "Solvency Risk and Corporate Performance: A Case Study on European Retailers," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-34, November.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G20 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - General

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