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The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks

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  • George Verikios

Abstract

The economic effects of pandemic influenza, a regularly recurring form of infectious disease, are analysed. Epidemiological and economic models are linked to capture the transmission of the pandemic from regional populations to regional economies. The analysis builds on previous studies that apply computable general equilibrium (CGE) models with quarterly periodicity to assess the economic effects of infectious disease. The economic effects are assessed with the annual and quarterly periodicity, and the results are compared and contrasted. The analysis demonstrates the importance of quarterly periodicity as it can capture the short, sharp duration of influenza pandemics. The results demonstrate that annual economic models strongly underestimate the economic effects of infectious disease outbreaks that have a lifespan of less than one year because they can not accurately capture the time profile of the effects of an infectious disease outbreak.
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Suggested Citation

  • George Verikios, 2017. "The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201711, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:gri:epaper:economics:201711
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    1. Verikios, George, 2020. "The dynamic effects of infectious disease outbreaks: the case of pandemic influenza and human coronavirus," MPRA Paper 104434, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Betarelli Junior, Admir Antonio & Faria, Weslem Rodrigues & Proque, Andressa Lemes & Perobelli, Fernando Salgueiro & de Almeida Vale, Vinicius, 2021. "COVID-19, public agglomerations and economic effects: Assessing the recovery time of passenger transport services in Brazil," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 254-272.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable general equilibrium; infectious diseases; pandemic influenza; periodicity; trade linkages;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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