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Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model

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Listed:
  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Bumsoo Lee
  • Todd Muehlenbeck
  • Maureen T. Rimmer
  • Adam Z. Rose
  • George Verikios

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities than to supply-side effects such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-202, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-202
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    2. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. George Verikios, 2017. "The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201711, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    4. repec:eee:touman:v:46:y:2015:i:c:p:408-418 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Louise Roos, 2014. "Theoretical specification of a labour-supply module, including HIV/AIDS, for South Africa," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-241, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Peter B. Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen T. Rimmer & Glyn Wittwer, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism events: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool)," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-280, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    8. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.
    9. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Influenza epidemic Quarterly CGE modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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