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Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model

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  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Bumsoo Lee
  • Todd Muehlenbeck
  • Maureen T. Rimmer
  • Adam Z. Rose
  • George Verikios

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities than to supply-side effects such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-202, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-202
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Swine Influenza (H1N1)
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Macroeconomic

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    Cited by:

    1. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    2. Zahniser, Steven & Hertz, Thomas & Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2017. "The Potential Effects of Increased Demand for U.S. Agricultural Exports on Metro and Nonmetro Employment," Economic Research Report 262186, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    3. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. Peter A.G. van Bergeijk, 2021. "Pandemic Economics," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 20401.
    5. Donohoe, Holly & Pennington-Gray, Lori & Omodior, Oghenekaro, 2015. "Lyme disease: Current issues, implications, and recommendations for tourism management," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 408-418.
    6. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2021. "Coping with seasonality in a quarterly CGE model: COVID-19 and U.S. agriculture," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-315, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    7. Patrice Rélouendé Zidouemba & Somlanare Romuald Kinda & Idrissa Mohamed Ouedraogo, 2020. "Could Covid-19 Worsen Food Insecurity in Burkina Faso?," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(5), pages 1379-1401, December.
    8. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 23-103, Elsevier.
    9. Konstantin A. Kholodilin & Malte Rieth, 2020. "Viral Shocks to the World Economy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1861, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    10. Franziska Schuenemann & James Thurlow & Stefan Meyer & Richard Robertson & Joao Rodrigues, 2018. "Evaluating irrigation investments in Malawi: economy†wide impacts under uncertainty and labor constraints," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 49(2), pages 237-250, March.
    11. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2016. "Johansen's legacy to CGE modelling: Originator and guiding light for 50 years," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 421-435.
    12. De Bruin, Kelly & Monaghan, Eoin & Yakut, Aykut Mert, 2020. "The environmental and economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on the Irish economy: An application of the I3E model," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number RS106.
    13. Adam Rose & Misak Avetisyan & Samrat Chatterjee, 2014. "A Framework for Analyzing the Economic Tradeoffs Between Urban Commerce and Security Against Terrorism," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(8), pages 1554-1579, August.
    14. George Verikios, 2017. "The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201711, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    15. Louise Roos, 2013. "Modelling the impact of HIV/AIDS: A literature review," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-233, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    16. Louise Roos, 2014. "Theoretical specification of a labour-supply module, including HIV/AIDS, for South Africa," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-241, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    17. Peter B. Dixon & Michael Jerie & Maureen T. Rimmer & Glyn Wittwer, 2017. "Using a regional CGE model for rapid assessments of the economic implications of terrorism events: creating GRAD-ECAT (Generalized, Regional And Dynamic Economic Consequence Analysis Tool)," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-280, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    18. Boisvert, Richard N. & Kay, David & Turvey, Calum G., 2012. "Macroeconomic costs to large scale disruptions of food production: The case of foot- and-mouth disease in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1921-1930.
    19. Cui, Qi & He, Ling & Liu, Yu & Zheng, Yanting & Wei, Wei & Yang, Bo & Zhou, Meifang, 2021. "The impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on China’s transport sectors based on the CGE model coupled with a decomposition analysis approach," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 103-115.
    20. Noy, Ilan & Uher, Tomáš, 2021. "Economic consequences of pre-COVID-19 epidemics: A literature review," Working Paper Series 9457, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Influenza epidemic Quarterly CGE modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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