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Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model

Author

Listed:
  • Dixon Peter B

    (Monash University)

  • Lee Bumsoo

    (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign)

  • Muehlenbeck Todd

    (University of Southern California)

  • Rimmer Maureen T.

    (Monash University)

  • Rose Adam

    (University of Southern California)

  • Verikios George

    (Monash University)

Abstract

We simulate the effects of a hypothetical H1N1 epidemic in the U.S. using a quarterly CGE model. Quarterly periodicity allows us to capture the short-run nature of an epidemic. We find potentially severe economic effects in the peak quarter. Averaged over the epidemic year, the effects are considerably damped. Our results indicate that the macroeconomic consequences of an epidemic are more sensitive to demand-side effects, such as reductions in international tourism and leisure activities, than to supply-side effects, such as reductions in productivity. This suggests that demand stimulus policies might be an appropriate economic response to a serious epidemic.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon Peter B & Lee Bumsoo & Muehlenbeck Todd & Rimmer Maureen T. & Rose Adam & Verikios George, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 Epidemic: Analysis with a Quarterly CGE Model," Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:johsem:v:7:y:2010:i:1:p:19:n:62
    DOI: 10.2202/1547-7355.1769
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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