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Dynamic trade liberalization analysis: steady state, transitional and inter-industry effects

  • Michael A. Kouparitsas

Despite their complexity, existing policy evaluation methods ignore many features of the real world that are pertinent for welfare analysis of trade policy. The main limitation of these technics is that they are static, which means they ignore important dynamic consequences of trade liberalization. This paper develops dynamic tools that overcome many of these weaknesses. I apply these technics to the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). My analysis suggests that while the steady state gains from NAFTA are significant, the transitional costs associated with moving to the liberalized steady state are relatively large, so that on net the trade policy produces modest welfare gains for North America.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series with number WP-98-15.

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Date of creation: 1998
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhwp:wp-98-15
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  1. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June.
  2. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "Why do countries pursue bilateral trade agreements: a case study of North America," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  3. McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995. "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Papers 118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  4. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M.J., 1990. "Explaining Saving/Investment Correlation," RCER Working Papers 224, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  5. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  6. Lawrence H. Goulder & Barry Eichengreen, 1992. "Trade Liberalization in General Equilibrium: Intertemporal and Inter-industry Effects," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 253-80, May.
  7. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Marianne Baxter, 1991. "Fiscal policy, specialization, and trade in the two-sector model: the return of Ricardo?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 56, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  9. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  10. Clinton R. Shiells & Kenneth A. Reinert, 1993. "Armington Models and Terms-of-Trade Effects: Some Econometric Evidence for North America," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 26(2), pages 299-316, May.
  11. McKibbin, W.J., 1997. "Regional and Multiregional Trade Liberalization: The Effects on Trade, Investment and Welfare," Papers 134, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
  12. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1992. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and a Computational Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 11-30, 01.
  13. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  14. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521266550.
  15. Marianne Baxter, 1995. "International Trade and Business Cycles," NBER Working Papers 5025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Patrick J. Kehoe & Timothy J. Kehoe, 1994. "Capturing NAFTA's impact with applied general equilibrium models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr, pages 17-34.
  17. J. David Richardson & Lionel Olmer & Paula Stern, 1994. "Trade Policy," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Policy in the 1980s, pages 627-690 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  19. Joyce Manchester & Warwick Mckibbin, 1995. "The global macroeconomics of NAFTA," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 203-223, July.
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