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North-South business cycles

  • Michael A. Kouparitsas

This paper shows that the economic activity of the industrial North and developing South move together - when the North is above its trend, the South tends to be above its trend. We refer to this phenomenon as the "North-South business cycle." The paper develops a quantitative general equilibrium model of North-South trade that captures many cyclical features of North-South trade and production data. In particular, the high volatility of North-South terms of trade, and strong comovement of Northern and Southern activity. On the basis of this model we argue that North-South business cycles emerge because shocks originating in the North are transmitted to the South through international goods and assets trade.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago in its series Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues with number WP-96-9.

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Date of creation: 1996
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedhma:wp-96-9
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  1. King, Robert G & Plosser, Charles I & Rebelo, Sergio T, 2002. "Production, Growth and Business Cycles: Technical Appendix," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 20(1-2), pages 87-116, October.
  2. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1981. "Terms of trade and domestic distribution : Export-led growth with abundant labour," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 163-192, April.
  3. Rudiger Dornbusch & Alejandro Werner, 1994. "Mexico: Stabilization, Reform, and No Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 25(1), pages 253-316.
  4. Marianne Baxter, 1991. "Fiscal policy, specialization, and trade in the two-sector model: the return of Ricardo?," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 56, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  5. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Are Cyclical Fluctuations in Productivity Due More to Supply Shocks or Demand Shocks?," NBER Working Papers 2147, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Whalley, John, 1984. "The North-South Debate and the Terms of Trade: An Applied General Equilibrium Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 66(2), pages 224-34, May.
  7. David K. Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe, 1991. "International evidence on the historical properties of business cycles," Staff Report 145, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  8. Baxter, Marianne, 1995. "International trade and business cycles," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 35, pages 1801-1864 Elsevier.
  9. David Backus & Patrick J. Kehoe & Finn E. Kydland, 1993. "International Business Cycles: Theory and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 4493, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Sansarricq, Frank, 1990. "North-South trade and Southern industrialization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1-2), pages 249-267, November.
  11. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
  12. Moutos, Thomas & Vines, David, 1989. "The Simple Macroeconomics of North-South Interaction," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(2), pages 270-76, May.
  13. McIntosh, James, 1986. "North-south trade : Export-led Growth with Abundant Labour," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 141-152, November.
  14. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1996. "North-South financial integration and business cycles," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-96-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  15. Matthew D. Shapiro, 1987. "Measuring Market Power in U.S. Industry," NBER Working Papers 2212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Baxter, M. & Crucini, M., 1991. "Business Cycles and the Asset Structure of Foreign Trade," RCER Working Papers 316, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  17. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521266550 is not listed on IDEAS
  18. Burgstaller, A. & Saavedra-Rivano, N., 1984. "Capital mobility and growth in a North-South model," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-3), pages 213-237.
  19. Findlay, Ronald, 1984. "Growth and development in trade models," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 185-236 Elsevier.
  20. Ramey, Valerie A, 1989. "Inventories as Factors of Production and Economic Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(3), pages 338-54, June.
  21. King, Robert G. & Plosser, Charles I. & Rebelo, Sergio T., 1988. "Production, growth and business cycles : I. The basic neoclassical model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2-3), pages 195-232.
  22. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1997. "North-South terms of trade: an empirical investigation," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues WP-97-05, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  23. Baxter, M., 1994. "International Trade and Business Cycles," RCER Working Papers 390, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
  24. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1984. "North-South trade and exported-led policies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1-3), pages 131-160.
  25. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Sundberg, Mark W., 1993. "Implications for the Asia-Pacific region of coordination of macroeconomic policies in the OECD," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 13-48, February.
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