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H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy

Author

Listed:
  • George Verikios
  • James McCaw
  • Jodie McVernon
  • Anthony Harris

Abstract

Early 2009 saw the emergence of an H1N1 influenza epidemic in North America that eventually spread to become the first pandemic of the twenty-first century. Previous work has suggested that pandemics and near-pandemics can have large macroeconomic effects on highly affected regions; here, we estimate what those effects might be for Australia. Our analysis applies the MONASH-Health model: a computable general equilibrium model of the Australian economy. We deviate from previous work by incorporating two important short-run mechanisms in our analytical framework: quarterly periodicity and excess capacity. The analysis supports the assertion that an H1N1 epidemic could have significant short-run macroeconomic effects but the size of these effects is highly dependent on the degree of inertia in the markets for physical capital and labour.

Suggested Citation

  • George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2012. "H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 22-51.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:17:y:2012:i:1:p:22-51
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2012.639999
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-193, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    2. George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2010. "H1N1 influenza in Australia and its macroeconomic effects," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-212, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Warwick McKibbin & Alexandra Sidorenko, 2006. "Global Macroeconomic Consequences of Pandemic Influenza," CAMA Working Papers 2006-26, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Consequences > Macroeconomic
    2. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > Swine Influenza (H1N1)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    2. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Deliana Kostova & Cynthia H. Cassell & John T. Redd & Desmond E. Williams & Tushar Singh & Lise D. Martel & Rebecca E. Bunnell, 2019. "Long‚Äźdistance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1248-1261, November.
    4. George Verikios, 2017. "The importance of periodicity in modelling infectious disease outbreaks," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:201711, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.

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