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Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity

Author

Listed:
  • Peter B. Dixon
  • Maureen T. Rimmer

Abstract

Simulations with dynamic, single-country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring simultaneously with a contraction in exports and little movement in the real exchange rate. We show that to describe this situation it is necessary to drop the standard CGE assumption that capital is always fully employed in every industry. After introducing an excess-capacity specification, we simulate the U.S. recession with and without the Obama stimulus package.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-193, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-193
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    2. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    3. Kaludura Abayasiri-Silva & Mark Horridge, 1996. "Economies of Scale and Imperfect Competition in an Applied General Equilibrium Model of the Australian Economy," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers op-84, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    4. W. Jill Harrison & Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson & Glyn Wittwer, 2004. "A Practical Method for Explicitly Modeling Quotas and Other Complementarities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 325-341, June.
    5. R. L. Hall & C. J. Hitch, 1939. "Price Theory And Business Behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 12-45.
    6. Boeters, Stefan & Böhringer, Christoph & Feil, Michael, 2002. "Taxation and unemployment: an applied general equilibrium approach for Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 02-39, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2011. "You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 602-613, January.
    2. repec:taf:rjapxx:v:17:y:2012:i:1:p:22-51 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U S recession CGE modelling excess capacity sticky rents mark-up pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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