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You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity

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  • Dixon, Peter B.
  • Rimmer, Maureen T.

Abstract

Simulations with dynamic, single country, CGE models typically imply that reductions in domestic demand, e.g. a cut in investment, generate increases in exports and reductions in imports facilitated by real depreciation. However, currently in the U.S. a large reduction in investment is occurring simultaneously with a contraction in exports and little movement in the real exchange rate. We show that to describe this situation it is necessary to drop the standard CGE assumption that capital is always fully employed in every industry. After introducing an excess capacity specification, we simulate the U.S. recession with and without the Obama stimulus package.

Suggested Citation

  • Dixon, Peter B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2011. "You can't have a CGE recession without excess capacity," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 602-613, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1-2:p:602-613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harris, Richard, 1984. "Applied General Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(5), pages 1016-1032, December.
    2. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    3. W. Jill Harrison & Mark Horridge & K.R. Pearson & Glyn Wittwer, 2004. "A Practical Method for Explicitly Modeling Quotas and Other Complementarities," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 23(4), pages 325-341, June.
    4. Dixon, Peter B. & Pearson, K.R. & Picton, Mark R. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2005. "Rational expectations for large CGE models: A practical algorithm and a policy application," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 1001-1019, December.
    5. Corden, W M & Dixon, P B, 1980. "A Tax-Wage Bargain in Australia: Is a Free Lunch Possible?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 56(154), pages 209-221, September.
    6. R. L. Hall & C. J. Hitch, 1939. "Price Theory And Business Behaviour," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 0(1), pages 12-45.
    7. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2010. "Simulating the U.S. Recession with and without the Obama package: the role of excess capacity," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-193, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    8. Adams, Philip D & Dixon, Peter B, 2001. "The September 11 shock to tourism and the Australian economy from 2001-02 to 2003-04," Australian Bulletin of Labour, National Institute of Labour Studies, vol. 27(4), pages 241-257.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gordon Menzies & Ron Bird & Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Asset Price Regulators, Unite: You have the Macroeconomy to Win and the Microeconomic Losses are Small," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(278), pages 449-464, September.
    2. Glyn Wittwer & Marnie Griffith, 2011. "Modelling drought and recovery in the southern Murray‚ÄźDarling basin," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, pages 342-359.
    3. Dixon, Peter B. & Koopman, Robert B. & Rimmer, Maureen T., 2013. "The MONASH Style of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling: A Framework for Practical Policy Analysis," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    4. Peter B. Dixon & Maureen T. Rimmer, 2011. "Doubling U.S. Exports under the President's National Export Initiative: Is it realistic? Is it desirable?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-220, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. recession CGE modelling Excess capacity Sticky rents Mark-up pricing;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D50 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - General
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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