Doubling U.S. Exports under the President's National Export Initiative: Is it realistic? Is it desirable?
President Obama's National Export Initiative is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import-demand curves and domestic export-supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy-wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession-relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor-demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export-promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million one-year jobs for the period 2008-2020 to 45 million jobs.
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