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The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza

Author

Listed:
  • George Verikios
  • Maura Sullivan
  • Pane Stojanovski
  • James Giesecke
  • Gordon Woo

Abstract

We analyse the global economic effects of two influenza pandemics that represent extremes along the virulence-infectiousness continuum of possible pandemics: a high virulence-low infectiousness event and a low virulence-high infectiousness event. We do this by applying results from a susceptible-infected-recovered epidemiological model to a detailed, quarterly computable general equilibrium model. Our findings indicate that global economic activity will be more strongly affected by a pandemic with high infection rates rather than high virulence rates, all else being equal. At the regional level, regions with a higher degree of economic integration with the world economy will be affected more strongly than less integrated regions.

Suggested Citation

  • George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-224
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jong-Wha Lee & Warwick J. McKibbin, 2004. "Globalization and Disease: The Case of SARS," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(1), pages 113-131.
    2. Peter B. Dixon & Bumsoo Lee & Todd Muehlenbeck & Maureen T. Rimmer & Adam Z. Rose & George Verikios, 2010. "Effects on the U.S. of an H1N1 epidemic: analysis with a quarterly CGE model," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-202, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Lars Jonung & Werner Roeger, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of a pandemic in Europe - A model-based assessment," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 251, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    4. George Verikios & James McCaw & Jodie McVernon & Anthony Harris, 2012. "H1N1 influenza and the Australian macroeconomy," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 22-51.
    5. J.A. Giesecke & W.J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & M. Suher, 2010. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of a RDD attack scenario," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-194, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Coronavirus, quanti ritardi della politica! Ecco i possibili scenari da qui a fine marzo
      by PierGiorgio Gawronski in Il Fatto Quotidiano on 2020-03-14 15:52:41

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    Cited by:

    1. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2016. "Assessing Regional Risks From Pandemic Influenza: A Scenario Analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(8), pages 1225-1255, August.
    2. Deliana Kostova & Cynthia H. Cassell & John T. Redd & Desmond E. Williams & Tushar Singh & Lise D. Martel & Rebecca E. Bunnell, 2019. "Long‚Äźdistance effects of epidemics: Assessing the link between the 2014 West Africa Ebola outbreak and U.S. exports and employment," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(11), pages 1248-1261, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    computable general equilibrium; pandemic influenza; quarterly periodicity;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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