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Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of a RDD attack scenario

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  • J.A. Giesecke
  • W.J. Burns
  • A. Barrett
  • E. Bayrak
  • A. Rose
  • M. Suher

Abstract

Using a large-scale CGE model, we investigate the short-run and long-run regional economic consequences of a catastrophic event - attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD) - centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two main routes via which such a catastrophic event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). Broadly, the resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception on the part of firms, households and government. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation (Dirty Bomb) causes little direct capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short-run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. In both the short-run and long-run in the affected region, households may require higher wages to work, investors may require higher returns to invest, and economic agents may switch their preferences away from goods produced. We show that because perception effects may have lingering long-term deleterious impacts on both the supply-cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they have the potential to generate changes in real regional GDP that are much greater than those generated by the resource loss effect. Implications for policy that might mitigate these effects are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • J.A. Giesecke & W.J. Burns & A. Barrett & E. Bayrak & A. Rose & M. Suher, 2010. "Assessment of the Regional Economic Impacts of Catastrophic Events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of a RDD attack scenario," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-194, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
  • Handle: RePEc:cop:wpaper:g-194
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James Andrew Giesecke, 2011. "Development of a Large-scale Single US Region CGE Model using IMPLAN Data: A Los Angeles County Example with a Productivity Shock Application," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(3), pages 331-350, April.
    2. Bird, R. & Menzies, G. & Dixon, P. & Rimmer, M., 2011. "The economic costs of US stock mispricing," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 552-567, July.
    3. Leeth, John D & Ruser, John, 2003. "Compensating Wage Differentials for Fatal and Nonfatal Injury Risk by Gender and Race," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 257-277, December.
    4. Bostedt, Goran, 2001. "Reindeer husbandry, the Swedish market for reindeer meat, and the Chernobyl effects," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 26(3), December.
    5. Lucas W. Davis, 2004. "The Effect of Health Risk on Housing Values: Evidence from a Cancer Cluster," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1693-1704, December.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Rose, 2015. "Macroeconomic consequences of terrorist attacks: estimation for the analysis of policies and rules," Chapters,in: Benefit–Cost Analyses for Security Policies, chapter 8, pages 172-200 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. George Verikios & Maura Sullivan & Pane Stojanovski & James Giesecke & Gordon Woo, 2011. "The Global Economic Effects of Pandemic Influenza," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-224, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Giesecke, James A. & Madden, John R., 2013. "Regional Computable General Equilibrium Modeling," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
    4. Yan Shi & Shumiao Jin & Klaus Seeland, 2015. "Modeling business interruption impacts due to disrupted highway network of Shifang by the Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1731-1745, January.
    5. J. Nassios & J.A. Giesecke, 2015. "The Macroeconomic and Sectoral Effects of Terrorism in the U.S.: A Reconciliation of CGE and Econometric Approaches," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-256, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    RDD; economic impact; terrorism; risk perception;

    JEL classification:

    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models

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